{"id":49168,"date":"2025-04-09T16:07:27","date_gmt":"2025-04-09T16:07:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thecryptocurrencypost.net\/es\/?p=49168"},"modified":"2025-04-09T16:07:29","modified_gmt":"2025-04-09T16:07:29","slug":"arthur-hayes-advierte-que-la-fed-enfrenta-una-disyuntiva-critica-ante-la-tension-en-los-mercados","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thecryptocurrencypost.net\/es\/arthur-hayes-advierte-que-la-fed-enfrenta-una-disyuntiva-critica-ante-la-tension-en-los-mercados\/","title":{"rendered":"Arthur Hayes Advierte que la Fed Enfrenta una Disyuntiva Cr\u00edtica ante la Tensi\u00f3n en los Mercados"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"0\" data-end=\"483\">Puntos clave de la noticia:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"0\" data-end=\"144\">\n<p class=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify\" data-start=\"2\" data-end=\"144\">Arthur Hayes advierte que la subida de rendimientos junto a la ca\u00edda de acciones refleja <strong>un desequilibrio cr\u00edtico en la econom\u00eda financiera.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify\" data-start=\"145\" data-end=\"261\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"147\" data-end=\"261\"><strong>El mercado anticipa recortes de tasas en mayo<\/strong> tras los nuevos aranceles, las expectativas ya superan el 50%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"262\" data-end=\"400\">\n<p class=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify\" data-start=\"264\" data-end=\"400\"><strong>Analistas temen que China reduzca su exposici\u00f3n a bonos del Tesoro<\/strong>, lo que podr\u00eda elevar a\u00fan m\u00e1s los costos de financiamiento en EE. UU..<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify\" data-start=\"0\" data-end=\"483\"><strong>Arthur Hayes<\/strong>, fundador de <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bitmex.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>BitMEX<\/strong><\/a>, <strong>advirti\u00f3 que la Reserva Federal ha llegado a un punto cr\u00edtico<\/strong>. Seg\u00fan su an\u00e1lisis, el comportamiento actual del <strong>mercado<\/strong> muestra <strong>se\u00f1ales preocupantes<\/strong>.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify\" data-start=\"0\" data-end=\"483\">Mientras los \u00edndices burs\u00e1tiles caen, <strong>los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro a 10 a\u00f1os suben<\/strong>, un fen\u00f3meno que tradicionalmente no ocurre en paralelo. Esta disociaci\u00f3n, afirm\u00f3, <strong>refleja un desequilibrio grave en la <a href=\"https:\/\/thecryptocurrencypost.net\/es\/economia\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">econom\u00eda<\/a> financiera<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Fed is on the clock, shit is breaking down.<\/p>\n<p>Stocks down, 10-yr yield down, good! (prev)<br \/>Stocks down, 10-yr yield up, bad! (now)<\/p>\n<p>Mrkt finally realising that if there are less export dollar earnings, there cannot be treasury buying or stock buying. Game Over! <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/owuyOU38Cy\">pic.twitter.com\/owuyOU38Cy<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CryptoHayes\/status\/1909780750331003328?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 9, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"0\" data-end=\"483\">Seg\u00fan Arthur Hayes, la Intervenci\u00f3n de la Fed es Inevitable<\/h2>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify\" data-start=\"485\" data-end=\"955\">Arthur se\u00f1al\u00f3 que esta situaci\u00f3n no solo complica la tarea de la Fed, sino que tambi\u00e9n <strong>limita su margen de maniobra<\/strong>. En su opini\u00f3n, si el Tesoro decide cancelar las pr\u00f3ximas subastas de deuda a largo plazo y opta por utilizar el saldo del Treasury General Account, <strong>estar\u00edamos ante una forma indirecta de emisi\u00f3n monetaria<\/strong>. Para \u00e9l, esto solo prepara el terreno para <strong>una intervenci\u00f3n inevitable de la Reserva Federal<\/strong>, <strong>independientemente del camino que elija Jerome Powell.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify\" data-start=\"957\" data-end=\"1347\">El mercado ya est\u00e1 ajustando sus expectativas. En solo unas horas, <strong>las probabilidades de un recorte de tasas en mayo pasaron del 40% al 56%<\/strong>, en parte por el impacto de los nuevos aranceles sobre importaciones chinas anunciados por la administraci\u00f3n Trump.<strong> La combinaci\u00f3n de tarifas y desaceleraci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica refuerza la idea de que los recortes podr\u00edan extenderse durante el resto del a\u00f1o.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"957\" data-end=\"1347\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-49169\" src=\"https:\/\/thecryptocurrencypost.net\/es\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/hayes-post.jpg\" alt=\"Arthur Hayes post\" width=\"699\" height=\"280\" srcset=\"https:\/\/thecryptocurrencypost.net\/es\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/hayes-post.jpg 699w, https:\/\/thecryptocurrencypost.net\/es\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/hayes-post-300x120.jpg 300w, https:\/\/thecryptocurrencypost.net\/es\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/hayes-post-585x234.jpg 585w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 699px) 100vw, 699px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"957\" data-end=\"1347\">China Podr\u00eda Dejar de Invertir en Bonos del Tesoro<\/h3>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify\" data-start=\"1349\" data-end=\"1621\">Al mismo tiempo, los rendimientos de los bonos a 10 a\u00f1os superaron el 4,5%, mientras que los bonos a 2 a\u00f1os tambi\u00e9n subieron. Esta tendencia indica que <strong>los inversores est\u00e1n abandonando incluso los activos tradicionalmente seguros, lo que agrava la tensi\u00f3n en los mercados.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify\" data-start=\"1623\" data-end=\"2205\">Desde el sector financiero, algunos analistas advierten que <strong>pa\u00edses como China podr\u00edan comenzar a desprenderse de bonos del Tesoro<\/strong>. Una decisi\u00f3n de este tipo <strong>elevar\u00eda a\u00fan m\u00e1s los costos de financiamiento en Estados Unidos<\/strong>, afectando el cr\u00e9dito hipotecario y el financiamiento empresarial.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify\" data-start=\"1623\" data-end=\"2205\">Por ahora, <strong>Powell se mantiene en silencio, sin ofrecer indicios sobre los pr\u00f3ximos pasos<\/strong>. Sin embargo, cualquier intento de recortar tasas podr\u00eda interpretarse como una se\u00f1al de debilidad, lo que elevar\u00eda las expectativas inflacionarias y aumentar\u00eda la presi\u00f3n sobre la econom\u00eda estadounidense.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Puntos clave de la noticia: Arthur Hayes advierte que la subida de rendimientos junto a la ca\u00edda de acciones refleja un desequilibrio cr\u00edtico en la econom\u00eda financiera. El mercado anticipa recortes de tasas en mayo tras los nuevos aranceles, las expectativas ya superan el 50%. Analistas temen que China reduzca su exposici\u00f3n a bonos del [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":49170,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_title":"","rank_math_description":"","rank_math_robots":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[82,33],"tags":[444,811,397,188],"class_list":["post-49168","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia","category-editors-picks","tag-economia","tag-estado-unidos","tag-fed","tag-mercado"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Arthur Hayes Advierte que la Fed Enfrenta una Disyuntiva Cr\u00edtica ante la Tensi\u00f3n en los Mercados The CryptoCurrency Post ESP<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Arthur Hayes advierte que la subida de rendimientos junto a la ca\u00edda de acciones 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