{"id":56749,"date":"2025-11-13T21:49:34","date_gmt":"2025-11-13T21:49:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thecryptocurrencypost.net\/es\/?p=56749"},"modified":"2025-11-13T21:49:40","modified_gmt":"2025-11-13T21:49:40","slug":"will-crypto-crash-in-2026-prediciendo-el-proximo-mercado-bajista","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thecryptocurrencypost.net\/es\/will-crypto-crash-in-2026-prediciendo-el-proximo-mercado-bajista\/","title":{"rendered":"An\u00e1lisis: Pico de Bitcoin no ha llegado y se mover\u00eda hasta $203,000 en 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Nuevos an\u00e1lisis de modelos en cadena sugieren que el ciclo alcista de <a href=\"https:\/\/coinmarketcap.com\/currencies\/bitcoin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>Bitcoin<\/strong><\/a> no ha terminado. A pesar del m\u00e1ximo de octubre de 2025, los indicadores clave sit\u00faan el pico final entre junio y septiembre de 2026. Esta <b>predicci\u00f3n del pr\u00f3ximo mercado bajista<\/b> retrasa las expectativas de un colapso inminente.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>El an\u00e1lisis se basa en el indicador Pi-Cycle, que no ha se\u00f1alado un cruce de &#8220;techo&#8221;. Este modelo proyecta el pico real para el verano de 2026. Asimismo, el MVRV Z-Score, un medidor de valoraci\u00f3n, <b>indica que la zona de riesgo comienza<\/b> cuando Bitcoin alcance entre $174,000 y $203,000. Actualmente, el MVRV se mantiene en 1.81, lejos de los niveles de euforia (3.0-3.5) vistos en picos anteriores.<\/p>\n<p>Este ciclo se ha extendido m\u00e1s all\u00e1 de los patrones hist\u00f3ricos del halving. Dos factores principales explican este comportamiento. Primero, los flujos de los ETF de Bitcoin al contado <b>han absorbido m\u00e1s de $60 mil millones<\/b>, superando la nueva oferta de los mineros. Segundo, la liquidez global de la <a href=\"https:\/\/thecryptocurrencypost.net\/es\/economia\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>econom\u00eda<\/b> <\/a>se ha mantenido elevada, dando soporte a los activos de riesgo y retrasando el agotamiento del ciclo.<\/p>\n<h2>\u00bfPor qu\u00e9 este ciclo de Bitcoin se est\u00e1 extendiendo m\u00e1s de lo esperado?<\/h2>\n<p>La <b>predicci\u00f3n del pr\u00f3ximo mercado bajista<\/b> sugiere una estructura compleja. Los modelos indican que la liquidez global (GLI) podr\u00eda alcanzar su m\u00e1ximo entre marzo y mayo de 2026, <i>antes<\/i> del pico de precio. <b>Esto podr\u00eda crear una &#8220;trampa alcista&#8221;<\/b>: una correcci\u00f3n inicial seguida de un \u00faltimo impulso alcista hacia el verano. Por ende, la ca\u00edda fuerte no ser\u00eda inmediata, sino que se desarrollar\u00eda en fases.<\/p>\n<p>Si el pico de Bitcoin ocurre entre junio y septiembre de 2026, el verdadero mercado bajista se confirmar\u00eda entre 6 y 10 semanas despu\u00e9s. Esto sit\u00faa el inicio de la ca\u00edda sostenida entre agosto y noviembre de 2026. Por ahora, <b>el m\u00e1ximo de $126,000 de 2025 se considera un pico<\/b> intermedio, no el final del ciclo alcista. El verdadero techo a\u00fan est\u00e1 por delante seg\u00fan estos modelos.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nuevos an\u00e1lisis de modelos en cadena sugieren que el ciclo alcista de Bitcoin no ha terminado. A pesar del m\u00e1ximo de octubre de 2025, los indicadores clave sit\u00faan el pico final entre junio y septiembre de 2026. Esta predicci\u00f3n del pr\u00f3ximo mercado bajista retrasa las expectativas de un colapso inminente.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":34,"featured_media":56748,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[84,33],"tags":[1433,124,140],"class_list":["post-56749","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analisis-de-precios","category-editors-picks","tag-analisis-de-precio","tag-bitcoin","tag-criptomonedas"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>An\u00e1lisis: Pico de Bitcoin no ha llegado y se mover\u00eda hasta $203,000 en 2026 The CryptoCurrency Post ESP<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Nuevos an\u00e1lisis de modelos clave sugieren que el pico de Bitcoin a\u00fan no llega. 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La predicci\u00f3n del pr\u00f3ximo mercado bajista se sit\u00faa para mediados de 2026.","og_url":"https:\/\/thecryptocurrencypost.net\/es\/will-crypto-crash-in-2026-prediciendo-el-proximo-mercado-bajista\/","og_site_name":"The CryptoCurrency Post ESP","article_published_time":"2025-11-13T21:49:34+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-11-13T21:49:40+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1280,"height":720,"url":"https:\/\/thecryptocurrencypost.net\/es\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/cripto-2026-bear-market-prediccion.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Mason Clarke","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Escrito por":"Mason Clarke","Tiempo de lectura":"2 minutos"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thecryptocurrencypost.net\/es\/will-crypto-crash-in-2026-prediciendo-el-proximo-mercado-bajista\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thecryptocurrencypost.net\/es\/will-crypto-crash-in-2026-prediciendo-el-proximo-mercado-bajista\/"},"author":{"name":"Mason Clarke","@id":"https:\/\/thecryptocurrencypost.net\/es\/#\/schema\/person\/f586cda0ce414930f54dec364b7dc81a"},"headline":"An\u00e1lisis: Pico de Bitcoin no ha llegado y se mover\u00eda hasta $203,000 en 2026","datePublished":"2025-11-13T21:49:34+00:00","dateModified":"2025-11-13T21:49:40+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thecryptocurrencypost.net\/es\/will-crypto-crash-in-2026-prediciendo-el-proximo-mercado-bajista\/"},"wordCount":358,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thecryptocurrencypost.net\/es\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thecryptocurrencypost.net\/es\/will-crypto-crash-in-2026-prediciendo-el-proximo-mercado-bajista\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/thecryptocurrencypost.net\/es\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/cripto-2026-bear-market-prediccion.jpg","keywords":["an\u00e1lisis de precio","Bitcoin","criptomonedas"],"articleSection":["An\u00e1lisis de precios","Editor's Picks"],"inLanguage":"es"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thecryptocurrencypost.net\/es\/will-crypto-crash-in-2026-prediciendo-el-proximo-mercado-bajista\/","url":"https:\/\/thecryptocurrencypost.net\/es\/will-crypto-crash-in-2026-prediciendo-el-proximo-mercado-bajista\/","name":"An\u00e1lisis: Pico de Bitcoin no ha llegado y se mover\u00eda hasta $203,000 en 2026 The CryptoCurrency Post ESP","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thecryptocurrencypost.net\/es\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thecryptocurrencypost.net\/es\/will-crypto-crash-in-2026-prediciendo-el-proximo-mercado-bajista\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thecryptocurrencypost.net\/es\/will-crypto-crash-in-2026-prediciendo-el-proximo-mercado-bajista\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/thecryptocurrencypost.net\/es\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/cripto-2026-bear-market-prediccion.jpg","datePublished":"2025-11-13T21:49:34+00:00","dateModified":"2025-11-13T21:49:40+00:00","description":"Nuevos an\u00e1lisis de modelos clave sugieren que el pico de Bitcoin a\u00fan no llega. 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