TL;DR
- Polymarket has seen an increase in betting activity due to Donald Trump’s return to X, with particular interest in the number of tweets he will post in the coming week.
- The betting market on whether Trump will make posts on X before the November 2024 election has accumulated $829,707, with a 100% prediction.
- Bets on Trump’s interview with Elon Musk included terms like “MAGA” and “tampon,” with returns of up to 455%.
Polymarket has experienced a significant surge in activity in its betting markets, driven by Donald Trump’s return to the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter. Bets have skyrocketed on various aspects of the businessman and politician’s behavior and statements on Elon Musk’s social network.
One of the most active markets on Polymarket focuses on predicting the number of tweets Trump will post over the next week. Participants have placed bets in different ranges, from 11 to 15 tweets to over 50 tweets within a week.
Currently, most bets are concentrated in the 11-15 tweets range, with $72,399 wagered in this category, reflecting a 28% probability. Another significant range is for more than 50 tweets, with $71,713 in bets and an 18% probability.
Another major bet centers on whether Trump will post anything on X before the November 2024 presidential elections. This market has attracted a total of $829,707 in bets and currently predicts with 100% certainty that Trump will make a post before the election deadline.
Polymarket Resolves the ‘Tweets’ Term Controversy
Market conditions specify that any post or reply from Trump’s verified account (@realDonaldTrump) will count to resolve the bet as a “Yes.” Retweets are not considered for the outcome.
There is controversy due to the ambiguity in defining what constitutes a post on the X platform. Where the term “tweets” has been replaced by “posts.” To resolve these disputes, Polymarket uses UMA’s Optimistic Oracle. A decentralized system that integrates real-world data into smart contracts to determine bet outcomes. In case of disagreement, the system allows UMA token holders to vote on the correct outcome, resolving disputes within 48 to 72 hours.
Regarding Trump’s interview with Elon Musk, participants bet on whether Trump would mention certain topics during the conversation. Although terms like “Bitcoin” and “crypto” were not mentioned, significant bets were placed on terms like “MAGA” and “tampon.” The term “tampon” saw a fluctuation in its value. Rising from 9 cents to 100 cents, while “MAGA” also experienced a substantial increase in value. Bettors achieved returns of up to 455% based on the interview’s results.
