Will Iran’s Regime Collapse by May 31, 2026? Market Odds and Key Factors

What is happening now

The Polymarket event “Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?” has just expired on 31 May 2026. The market closed with a Yes price of $0.0005 and a No price of $0.9995, indicating that the market participants overwhelmingly believe the Islamic Republic will remain in power past the deadline. The event is now in the “expired_pending_resolution” state, awaiting a consensus of credible reporting to determine the final outcome.

How the market is structured

This is a simple binary market: the outcome is either “Yes” (the regime falls) or “No” (the regime survives). The resolution hinges on a broad consensus that the core structures of the Islamic Republic—Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, IRGC under clerical authority—have been dissolved or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system. Routine political events such as elections or leadership succession do not qualify.

Path to the leading outcome

For the “Yes” outcome to prevail, the following would need to occur before 11:59 PM ET on 31 May 2026:

• A mass uprising or coordinated coup that removes the Supreme Leader and dismantles the Guardian Council.
• The IRGC losing effective control over the armed forces and security apparatus.
• A new provisional or revolutionary government taking control of the majority of Iranian territory and being recognized by credible international media and analysts.
• Consistent, independent reporting from multiple reputable outlets confirming the collapse of the Islamic Republic’s governing structures.

What could change the pricing

Events that could shift the market away from the current leader include:

• Sudden, credible evidence of a large-scale uprising or coup that has already toppled key institutions.
• International diplomatic recognition of a new government in Iran.
• Major sanctions or military actions that cripple the regime’s ability to maintain control.
• A credible intelligence report indicating the Supreme Leader has been deposed or incapacitated.

Editorial read

With a total volume of $38.3 million and liquidity of $2.49 million, the market attracted significant attention, reflecting the high stakes of geopolitical change in the Middle East. The near‑zero probability assigned to “Yes” suggests that, as of the last trading period, no credible evidence of a regime collapse had emerged. The market’s resolution will depend entirely on post‑deadline reporting; until a consensus of reputable sources confirms a fundamental break in continuity, the “No” outcome will stand. Traders and observers should watch for any credible reports of a coup, mass protest, or international recognition of a new Iranian government, as these would be the only catalysts capable of overturning the current consensus.