Will Donald Trump Leave Office by June 30? Market Odds on Resignation or Removal

What is happening now

With two days until the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline, Polymarket’s “Trump out as President by June 30?” contract is pricing a Trump exit at 0.05% (Yes at $0.0005, No at $0.9995). The market has traded $9.2 million in total volume, with $326,000 in the last 24 hours and $521,000 of liquidity supporting the order book. Open interest stands at $3.15 million. The Yes probability has collapsed from roughly 1% in earlier sessions to the current 0.05%, reflecting a steady grind toward the “No” outcome as the window for any permanent removal — resignation, sustained 25th Amendment invocation, impeachment conviction, or death — closes. No headlines in the past week have produced a meaningful bid for Yes shares, including public friction between Trump and congressional Republicans over Iran war powers (Blockchain.news).

How the market is structured

This is a single binary market with two outcomes: “Yes” (Trump permanently ceases to be president by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET) and “No” (he remains in office through that deadline). The rules specify that only permanent removal qualifies; temporary 25th Amendment invocations, impeachment without conviction, or announcements without follow-through do not count. An announcement of resignation or removal before the deadline would immediately resolve the market to Yes, regardless of effective date. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting. The “No” outcome leads at 99.95% implied probability.

Path to the leading outcome

• Status quo holds: Trump serves through June 30 with no resignation, no sustained 25th Amendment Section 4 invocation (requiring two-thirds votes in both chambers), no impeachment conviction, and no fatal health event.
• Time decay: With roughly 48 hours remaining, the probability of any qualifying event occurring and being confirmed by credible sources before the deadline is negligible.
• Market microstructure: Heavy open interest on the No side ($3.15M) and deep liquidity ($521K) indicate positioned participants are content to let the contract expire, collecting the final 0.05% yield on No shares.

What could change the pricing

• Sudden health emergency or death: A verified, permanent incapacitation or death before the deadline would instantly flip the market to Yes.
• Resignation announcement: A public resignation statement by Trump before June 30 would trigger immediate Yes resolution per the market rules.
• Sustained 25th Amendment action: A Cabinet and Vice Presidential declaration of inability followed by a two-thirds congressional vote in both houses — an unprecedented, multi-day process — would qualify, but there is zero public signaling of such a move.
• Impeachment conviction: Requires House impeachment and Senate conviction; no proceedings are underway.

Editorial read

The market is effectively settled. At 0.05% Yes with two days to expiry, the price reflects the mathematical floor for a binary contract that cannot be arbitraged lower without a catalyst. Volume remains robust ($9.2M cumulative) because the contract has served as a liquid hedge for tail-risk exposure throughout the second quarter, not because traders expect a late surprise. The resolution mechanics — immediate resolution on announcement, strict permanent-removal standard, credible-reporting consensus — leave no ambiguity for a last-minute flip. Unless a catastrophic, public, and verifiable event occurs in the next 48 hours, the $3.15M open interest will resolve to No at $1.00, delivering a trivial but risk-free return to No holders. The steady drift from 1% to 0.05% Yes over the past month is pure time decay, not information arrival.