Seeking the highest temperature in Seoul on June 29, 2026: detailed market outlook and p…
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The…
Highest temperature in Seoul on June 29?
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 29?
Price, depth and useful dates
An editorial view of the signal: what leads, how much activity is behind it, and which date carries the risk.
Archived market
What is happening now
As of the morning of June 29 2026, traders on Polymarket are pricing a set of binary contracts that ask whether the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station (RKSI) will equal each whole‑degree Celsius value from 20 °C up to 29 °C, or fall outside that range (≤20 °C or ≥30 °C). The contract for “26 °C Yes” is trading at 0.80, implying an 80 % chance that the day’s maximum temperature will be exactly 26 °C. The next most‑priced contract is “27 °C No” at 0.795 (≈79.5 % chance the maximum is not 27 °C). All other individual temperature contracts show yes‑prices below 0.01, indicating the market believes the outcome will be clustered around the mid‑20 °C range.
The market draws its resolution data from Wunderground’s historical observations for RKSI, which reports temperatures to the nearest whole degree. Trading volume exceeds $380 k, with open interest around $236 k, showing active participation as the resolution deadline (12:00 UTC) approaches.
No public deterministic forecast for June 29 2026 has been located in readily available meteorological outlets; the pricing therefore appears to reflect short‑term model ensembles and climatological expectations rather than a confirmed outlook.
Polymarket event page • Wunderground resolution source
How the market is structured
The event comprises 11 linked binary markets:
- Two range markets: “20 °C or below” and “30 °C or higher”.
- Nine point markets for each integer temperature from 21 °C through 29 °C.
Each market resolves Yes if the observed maximum temperature falls exactly within its specified bucket; otherwise it resolves No. Because the temperature is measured to whole degrees, the buckets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
The display model treats the set as a price‑ladder. The most informative signal is the implied probability distribution across the buckets. Currently the leading outcomes are:
- “26 °C Yes” – 80 % implied probability (price 0.80).
- “27 °C No” – ≈79.5 % implied probability (price 0.795).
All other point markets show yes‑prices ≤ 0.0025 (≤ 0.3 %). The range markets are heavily weighted toward No (> 99 % for both ≤20 °C and ≥30 °C).
Path to the leading outcome
For the “26 °C Yes” contract to pay out, the Wunderground observation for RKSI on June 29 2026 must record a maximum temperature of 26 °C. This would require:
- A synoptic setup that limits daytime heating – e.g., persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, or a weak cold front moving across the Korean Peninsula.
- Absence of strong southerly flow or downslope warming that could push temperatures into the high‑20 °C range.
- No localized urban heat‑island amplification at the airport station sufficient to lift the reading above 26 °C.
- Model updates: A shift in the 00 Z or 12 Z GFS/ECMWF ensemble forecasts indicating a higher likelihood of a warm ridge over East Asia would increase demand for “2
Editorial market brief.
This analysis is provided for informational and editorial purposes only. Market signal prices reflect market-implied expectations, not verified outcomes or recommendations. Markets can be illiquid, volatile, and subject to ambiguous resolution criteria.
If any of those conditions fail and the observed maximum reaches 27 °C or higher, the “26 °C Yes” contract resolves No and the corresponding “27 °C Yes” (or higher) contract would become the winner.