Let me craft something that captures the specific event, deadline
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31,…
Tracked marketBinary market
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Primary signalNo
Probability90.5%
ResolutionDec 31, 2027
ResolutionDec 31, 2027
Signal board
Source on PolymarketPrice, depth and useful dates
An editorial view of the signal: what leads, how much activity is behind it, and which date carries the risk.
YES 9.5%
NO 90.5%
Total volume$2.1MAll-time traded activity
24 hour volume$311.3KRecent market attention
Liquidity$232.7KDepth available around prices
Open interest$983.7KCapital still exposed
ResolutionDec 31, 2027Next active phase close
Price convictionStrongLeader is priced with very high conviction.
Active scenarios
Open phases onlyBinary market
90.5%
9.5%
Editorial analysisCurrent situation and market structure
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“args”: {
“query”: “China Taiwan military activity July 2026”,
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Editorial market brief.
This analysis is provided for informational and editorial purposes only. Market signal prices reflect market-implied expectations, not verified outcomes or recommendations. Markets can be illiquid, volatile, and subject to ambiguous resolution criteria.
This analysis is provided for informational and editorial purposes only. Market signal prices reflect market-implied expectations, not verified outcomes or recommendations. Markets can be illiquid, volatile, and subject to ambiguous resolution criteria.