This is a Polymarket event with multiple price thresholds for Ethereum on July 28, 2026

What is happening now

The Polymarket event “Ethereum above ___ on July 28?” has reached its resolution deadline. The event comprised 11 binary markets laddered from $1,400 to $2,400 in $100 increments, each asking whether the Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle close at 12:00 ET on July 28, 2026 would exceed the stated threshold. As of the latest update (2026-07-28T18:12:38Z), most markets show expired_pending_resolution status, while three — $1,500, $2,000, and $2,400 — are already closed_phase with definitive prices: Yes at 100% for $1,500, No at 100% for $2,000, and No at 100% for $2,400. This pattern implies the settlement price landed between $1,900 and $2,000 on the Binance 1m candle close at noon ET. Total event volume is ~300k USDC, with the heaviest liquidity clustered around the $1,700–$2,100 strikes.

How the market is structured

This is a price-ladder (range) market composed of 11 independent binary contracts, each resolving on the same underlying observation: the Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle Close at 12:00 ET (16:00 UTC) on 28 July 2026. Outcomes are mutually exclusive in economic terms — if ETH closes at $1,950, every threshold ≤ $1,900 resolves Yes and every threshold ≥ $2,000 resolves No. The three already-closed phases confirm the crossover zone: $1,500 Yes / $2,000 No / $2,400 No. The remaining eight markets ($1,400, $1,600, $1,700, $1,800, $1,900, $2,100, $2,200, $2,300) are awaiting the official Binance candle print for final resolution. Pricing on the open markets is pinned at the bounds (Yes 0.9995 / No 0.0005 below $1,900; Yes 0.0005 / No 0.9995 above $2,000), reflecting near-certainty once the reference price is known.

Path to the leading outcome

• Binance 1m candle close at 12:00 ET on 28 Jul 2026 prints between $1,900 and $1,999.99. This single data point resolves all 11 markets simultaneously.
• The $1,500 market has already resolved Yes (price = 1.0), confirming ETH > $1,500.
• The $2,000 and $2,400 markets have already resolved No (price = 1.0), confirming ETH < $2,000.
• No other data source or exchange price matters; the rules explicitly tie resolution to Binance ETH/USDT 1m candles.

What could change the pricing

• Only a discrepancy between the expected print and the actual Binance candle could flip any remaining market. For example, if the 11:59:00–11:59:59 ET candle closed at $1,999.50 but the 12:00:00–12:00:59 ET candle (the resolution candle) closed at $2,000.10, the $2,000 market would resolve Yes instead of No — but that market is already closed_phase at No 1.0, so the print has effectively been recorded.
• Data-feed errors or API delays on Binance’s side could delay resolution, but would not change the outcome once the authoritative candle is published.
• No fundamental news, protocol upgrades, or macro events can alter the result post-deadline; the observation is purely mechanical.

Editorial read

The ladder has effectively settled: ETH/USDT on Binance closed the 12:00 ET 1-minute candle on 28 July 2026 between $1,900 and $1,999.99. The three closed phases ($1,500 Yes, $2,000 No, $2,400 No) are the only on-chain confirmation needed; the remaining eight markets are mechanically determined and will resolve accordingly once Polymarket ingests the Binance candle. Volume concentration at $1,700–$2,100 (≈260k of 300k total) shows traders correctly identified the tight uncertainty band weeks ahead. Liquidity remains healthy (~$100k–$140k per open strike), so final settlement should be smooth. Watch for the official resolution txns — they will simply ratify what the closed phases already reveal.