Strait of Hormuz Ship Traffic to Hit 60-Day Average by Sept 30?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or…
Tracked marketBinary market
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Primary signalNo
Probability76.5%
ResolutionSep 30, 2026
ResolutionSep 30, 2026
Signal board
Source on PolymarketPrice, depth and useful dates
An editorial view of the signal: what leads, how much activity is behind it, and which date carries the risk.
YES 23.5%
NO 76.5%
Total volume$1.6MAll-time traded activity
24 hour volume$247.8KRecent market attention
Liquidity$285.9KDepth available around prices
Open interest$580.3KCapital still exposed
ResolutionSep 30, 2026Next active phase close
Price convictionLeaningMarket favors the leader, but with room to move.
Active scenarios
Open phases onlyBinary market
76.5%
23.5%
Editorial analysisCurrent situation and market structure
IMF Portwatch Strait of Hormuz transit calls recent data
Editorial market brief.
This analysis is provided for informational and editorial purposes only. Market signal prices reflect market-implied expectations, not verified outcomes or recommendations. Markets can be illiquid, volatile, and subject to ambiguous resolution criteria.
This analysis is provided for informational and editorial purposes only. Market signal prices reflect market-implied expectations, not verified outcomes or recommendations. Markets can be illiquid, volatile, and subject to ambiguous resolution criteria.