Ethereum above ___ on August 13?

What is happening now

Polymarket’s Ethereum price ladder for August 13, 2026 resolves today at 12:00 ET (16:00 UTC) based on the Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle close. The market comprises 11 binary strikes from $1,400 to $2,400. As of 05:51 UTC, the implied probability distribution centers tightly between $1,900 and $2,000: the $1,900 strike trades at 51% Yes / 49% No, while the $2,000 strike trades at 99.65% No. Strikes at $1,800 and below are >99% Yes; strikes at $2,100 and above are >99.9% No. Total volume is ~$310K with ~$229K traded in the last 24 hours, open interest ~$199K, and liquidity ~$168K. The market is in its final hours before resolution.

How the market is structured

This is a price-threshold ladder (price_range display model). Each strike is a separate binary market: “Will ETH be above $X at 12:00 ET on August 13?” Resolution uses the Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle close at that exact minute. The 11 strikes are spaced $100 apart. The leading signal is the implied range: the $1,900 strike is a near coin-flip (51% Yes), the $2,000 strike is 99.65% No, and the $1,800 strike is 99.1% Yes. Volume concentrates at the $2,000 strike (~$108.5K total, ~$68K 24h) and the $1,700 strike (~$98K total, ~$95K 24h), indicating active positioning around the $1,900–$2,000 boundary.

Path to the leading outcome

• $1,900 Yes (51%): Requires Binance ETH/USDT 1m candle close at 12:00 ET ≥ $1,900. Current spot near $1,900 would make this a toss-up.
• $1,800 Yes (99.1%): Effectively certain unless a sharp crash below $1,800 occurs in the next ~6 hours.
• $2,000 No (99.65%): Requires ETH to stay below $2,000 at the resolution minute. A rally above $2,000 would flip this to Yes.

The market prices a tight range: traders see roughly even odds ETH closes above $1,900 but near-zero odds it closes above $2,000.

What could change the pricing

• Intraday volatility: A 5%+ move in the next 6 hours would shift probability mass across the $1,900–$2,000 boundary.
• Binance-specific microstructure: Resolution uses Binance 1m candles only. Temporary dislocations, funding-rate spikes, or large market orders on Binance could move the settlement print away from broader spot.
• Macro/ETH-specific headlines: ETF flow data, L2 token unlocks, or regulatory news before 12:00 ET could trigger repricing.
• Liquidity withdrawal: With ~$168K total liquidity, a few large orders could move the $1,900 strike several percentage points.

Editorial read

The ladder is pricing a “max pain” zone for directional bettors: ETH is expected to close within a $100 band ($1,900–$2,000) with the midpoint as a coin flip. The $1,900 strike’s 51% Yes implies the market’s median expectation is essentially at-the-money. Volume and open interest are respectable for a single-day expiry, but liquidity is thin above $1,900 (only $110 at the $1,900 strike), meaning the 51% price could gap on modest flow. Resolution mechanics are unforgiving: a single 1-minute candle on one exchange decides all strikes. Traders should watch Binance order-book depth and funding rates into the 12:00 ET print; any dislocation there settles the market regardless of broader index prices. The current pricing reflects caution, not conviction—consistent with a market that sees a violent but range-bound session ahead.