Paris August 15 2026 High Temperature: Will It Top 30°C?

What is happening now

As of the latest update on 15 August 2026 the Polymarket contract titled Highest temperature in Paris on August 15? is in a pending‑resolution state. The market aggregates a series of binary “Yes/No” contracts that each target a specific integer temperature (30 °C, 31 °C, 32 °C, …) on that date. The contract with the lowest threshold – “Will the highest temperature be 30 °C or below on August 15?” – is the primary market; its No outcome currently trades at 0.9995 (≈100 % probability) while the Yes outcome trades at 0.0005 (≈0.05 %). The market’s total volume is about $207 k, liquidity stands near $82 k, and open interest is roughly $86 k, indicating deep participation. Resolution will be based on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground for the Paris‑Le Bourget Airport station (source), which records temperatures to whole degrees Celsius. The system will not finalize until the first data point for the following calendar day is published, meaning the outcome will likely be locked in on 16 August 2026 after the temperature reading is posted.

How the market is structured

The product is not a single binary question but a price‑range ladder of eleven related markets, each asking whether the recorded high will equal a specific temperature (30 °C, 31 °C, 32 °C, up to 40 °C). Each ladder rung has a “Yes” (the temperature equals that exact value) and a “No” (the temperature is either lower or higher, depending on the rung