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Will Bitcoin exceed $64,000 on August 17, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has…

Live marketPrice threshold range

Bitcoin above ___ on August 17?

This is a threshold ladder. The useful signal is the implied range, not every single strike.

Primary signal62,000-64,000
ProbabilityPrice threshold range
ResolutionAug 17, 2026
ResolutionAug 17, 2026
Signal board

Price, depth and useful dates

An editorial view of the signal: what leads, how much activity is behind it, and which date carries the risk.

Source on Polymarket
Price threshold range62,000-64,000Implied range
Total volume$656.4KAll-time traded activity
24 hour volume$485.5KRecent market attention
Liquidity$697.2KDepth available around prices
Open interest$429.1KCapital still exposed
ResolutionAug 17, 2026Next active phase close
Price convictionUnclearNo reliable leading probability available.
Active scenarios

Price threshold range

Open phases only
64,000No side
87.0%
62,000Yes side
97.1%
66,000No side
99.7%
60,000Yes side
99.8%
Editorial analysisCurrent situation and market structure

What is happening now

The prediction market event “Bitcoin above ___ on August 17?” on Polymarket is a price-threshold ladder scheduled to resolve on August 17, 2026. The market is currently pricing a narrow, highly consensus-driven range for Bitcoin’s price at the exact moment of resolution: 12:00 PM Eastern Time (ET). Based on real-time crowd-sourced probabilities, the market implies that Bitcoin will close the noon hour on Binance within a tight band of $62,000 to $64,000. Lower thresholds are considered virtually certain, while higher strikes are heavily discounted, reflecting a market that expects stability or a controlled consolidation phase leading up to the deadline.

How the market is structured

This event is not a single binary question but a multi-outcome price ladder consisting of 11 individual threshold markets. Each rung of the ladder is an independent binary option asking whether Bitcoin will close above a specific price level (from $54,000 up to $74,000).

The current pricing on the ladder reveals the market’s implied range:

  • $60,000 (Yes): Priced at 99.4%, indicating near-certainty that Bitcoin will hold this lower support.
  • $62,000 (Yes): Priced at 93%, showing a strong expectation that the price remains above this mark.
  • $64,000 (No): Priced at 88.5%, meaning the market heavily discounts the possibility of a breakout above this level.
  • $66,000 (No): Priced at 99.3%, indicating that a move to this higher threshold is considered highly improbable.

By combining these

Editorial market brief.
This analysis is provided for informational and editorial purposes only. Market signal prices reflect market-implied expectations, not verified outcomes or recommendations. Markets can be illiquid, volatile, and subject to ambiguous resolution criteria.