Anthropic vs OpenAI: Who Will Top the September 2026 AI Leaderboard?
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table…
Which company has the best AI model end of September?
The market has several possible outcomes. The display focuses on the highest priced live outcomes.
Price, depth and useful dates
An editorial view of the signal: what leads, how much activity is behind it, and which date carries the risk.
Grouped market event
What is happening now
The Polymarket event “Which company has the best AI model end of September?” is currently pricing Anthropic as the overwhelming favorite to hold the top spot on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard when it is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The specific market for Anthropic (market ID 3008494) is trading at 0.815, implying an 81.5% probability of a “Yes” resolution. This contract has seen $90,717 in 24-hour volume, contributing to a total event volume of $1.39 million. OpenAI is the only other contender with a non-trivial probability, trading at 0.165 (16.5%), while Google sits at 0.026 (2.6%). The remaining candidates, including Meta, DeepSeek, and Baidu, are priced at or below 0.0035, reflecting a highly concentrated market.
How the market is structured
This is a multi-market grouped event consisting of 21 individual binary contracts, each asking if a specific company will have the best AI model at the end of September. The outcomes are mutually exclusive: only one company can claim the top rank. Resolution is strictly tied to the “Text Arena (Overall)” leaderboard on arena.ai, filtered for models with style control off. The ranking methodology prioritizes the leaderboard rank, followed by the unrounded Arena score, and finally
This analysis is provided for informational and editorial purposes only. Market signal prices reflect market-implied expectations, not verified outcomes or recommendations. Markets can be illiquid, volatile, and subject to ambiguous resolution criteria.