Trump out as President by September 30?

What is happening now

Polymarket’s “Trump out as President by September 30?” contract trades at 0.7% for Yes and 99.4% for No as of September 20, 2026, reflecting near-total market conviction that Donald Trump will remain in office through the resolution deadline. The market is trending at rank 15 on Polymarket. Total volume stands at $1.31 million, with $251,000 traded in the last 24 hours. Open interest of $701,457 significantly exceeds available liquidity at $153,726, indicating heavy positioning on the No side with limited counterweight.

The contract’s timing is notable: it sits in the final days of a narrow resolution window. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on September 30, with resolution occurring just after midnight on October 1. Any event that could plausibly remove Trump from office must materialize within roughly ten days for the Yes outcome to have any value.

How the market is structured

This is a binary outcome market with two resolutions: Yes and No. Unlike range-based or multi-outcome prediction markets, there is no middle ground — the contract resolves entirely on whether Trump permanently ceases to be President before the deadline. The resolution rules are unusually specific and restrictive:

• An announcement of resignation or removal before the end date immediately resolves the market to Yes, regardless of when the removal actually takes effect.
• Only permanent removal qualifies. Temporary removal — such as a temporary invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment under Section 3, or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress — does not count.
• A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (where both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) would qualify as a Yes resolution.
• Impeachment without removal does not qualify. A House impeachment that fails in the Senate, or one that results in acquittal, would leave the market resolving No.

The resolution source is defined as a consensus of credible reporting, meaning no official government trigger is required — but the reporting threshold is implicit in the market’s design.

Path to the leading outcome

The No outcome at 99.4% resolves if Trump remains President through the deadline. This is the default scenario: no resignation announcement, no successful removal process, and no sustained Twenty-Fifth Amendment invocation occurs before October 1. The market is pricing this as effectively certain, with the Yes side representing less than a one-in-a-hundred probability.

What could change the pricing

For the Yes side to move meaningfully from 0.7%, one of the following would need to occur:

• A credible public announcement or consensus among reputable reporting outlets that Trump has resigned or will resign before the deadline. The market’s rules trigger on announcement, not on the actual departure date.
• A sustained Twenty-Fifth Amendment Section 4 process: the Vice President and Cabinet jointly declare Trump unable, and both Houses of Congress uphold that determination by two-thirds vote in each chamber. This is the only non-resignation pathway explicitly defined in the resolution rules.
• A credible reporting consensus that Trump has been permanently removed from office through another mechanism before October 1.

Critically, an impeachment vote in the House, a Senate trial that does not reach the two-thirds conviction threshold, or any court ruling or political development that does not result in permanent departure would not trigger a Yes resolution. The market’s explicit exclusion of temporary removal means that even a dramatic short-term incapacity event would