Fed December 2026 Rate Decision: 25 Bps Increase Priced at 74.5%

What is happening now

As of September 28 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to hold its December 2026 meeting on December 8‑9, with the official calendar indicating that the relevant policy decision will be released after the meeting (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm). Traders on Polymarket are currently pricing the likelihood that the FOMC will raise the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points after that meeting. The primary market (“Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?”) shows a “Yes” price of 0.745, implying a 74.5 % probability that a 25 bps hike will occur. The market remains open and active, with a total volume of roughly $1.68 million and $546 k in liquidity (Polymarket data). No rate decision has been made yet, so the outcome is still uncertain.

How the market is structured

The event is a date‑ladder market that bundles five related binary questions, each representing a different magnitude of rate change. The primary market (ID 3215008) asks whether the Fed will increase rates by exactly 25 bps; its “Yes” side corresponds to a 25 bps increase, while the “No” side captures any other outcome (no change, a 25 bps cut, a 50 bps+ cut, or a 50 bps+ hike). The outcome board lists the current probabilities: 74.5 % for a 25 bps increase (Yes), 99 % for “No” in the 25 bps decrease market, 77.5 % for “No” in the no‑change market, 99.6 % for “No” in the 50 bps+ decrease market, and 98.1 % for “No” in the 50 bps+ increase market. Resolution will be based on the FOMC statement released after the December 8‑9 meeting, per the official source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm). If no statement is issued by the end‑date (December 9 23:59 UTC), the market resolves to the “No change” bracket.

Path to the leading outcome

A “Yes” resolution for the primary market occurs when the FOMC’s post‑meeting statement explicitly announces a 25 bps increase in the target federal funds range. That would mean the upper bound of the range moves up by exactly 25 basis points compared with the level that existed before the December meeting. The market’s rules specify that any change smaller than 25 bps is rounded up to 25 bps, so a 12.5 bps hike would also be treated as a 25 bps increase. Consequently, the market will settle “Yes” as soon as the statement confirms a rate rise of at least 25 bps, regardless of whether the move is larger.

What could change the pricing

• Economic data releases – Stronger‑than‑expected inflation or wage growth in the weeks leading up to the meeting could push the probability of a hike higher, while weaker data could shift sentiment toward a pause or cut.
• Fed communications – Speeches by Chair Jerome Powell, minutes from the September meeting, or forward guidance that signals a more cautious stance may cause traders to lower the “Yes” price.
• Unexpected policy moves – A surprise 50 bps hike would still be a “Yes” for the primary market but could alter the perceived likelihood of a modest 25 bps move, potentially affecting the price.
• Rate cut scenarios – If the FOMC decides to cut rates (even by less than 25 bps), the primary market would resolve “No,” and the “25 bps decrease” market would become the dominant outcome, pulling the overall probability downward.
• Meeting postponement or delay – Should the December meeting be postponed beyond the scheduled date, the market would remain open until the later statement is released; if no decision emerges by the end‑date, it would resolve to “No change.”

Editorial read

The market currently assigns a 74.5 % odds to a modest 25 bps tightening, reflecting a consensus that inflation pressures remain elevated and that the Fed is likely to continue its gradual rate‑raising cycle. Robust liquidity and a $1.68 million trading volume indicate active participation, while the December 9 deadline provides ample time for traders to adjust positions as new data emerge. The leading outcome (Yes) is priced well above the 50 % threshold, suggesting that most participants expect the FOMC to act, but a sizable 25.5 % residual probability leaves room for a no‑change decision or an alternative move. Monitoring upcoming macro releases and Fed rhetoric will be essential to gauge whether the current pricing holds or shifts toward a different outcome before the December meeting concludes.