France declares state of emergency by…?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this…
France declares state of emergency by...?
Several deadline markets are grouped under one Polymarket event. Closed dates are archived; the live view focuses only on active deadlines.
Price, depth and useful dates
An editorial view of the signal: what leads, how much activity is behind it, and which date carries the risk.
Deadline map
What is happening now
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? matters because it is tied to a concrete event with a defined resolution path, not a broad sentiment question.
Resolution detail: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under…
How the market is structured
This is a date-ladder event. The market is asking when the condition happens, so the relative prices across dates are more useful than any one binary probability. The current leading priced outcome is October 31 leads near 98.4%.
Path to the leading outcome
The leading outcome would require evidence that directly satisfies the market wording before the relevant deadline, ideally from primary sources or clearly verifiable reporting.
What could change the pricing
Pricing could move away from the leader if the deadline approaches without qualifying evidence, if official sources contradict the premise, or if alternative outcomes gain clearer support.
What to verify next
- The market rules and resolution source.
- Primary-source statements connected to the event.
- Whether new reporting changes the exact condition in the question.
- Liquidity and trade size behind any sharp repricing.
Editorial read
This Polymarket event groups several deadline markets. The current primary live phase is December 31, led by No near 92.5%. Closed phases are kept out of the live board and retained only as history. The useful reading is how attention moves across 2 active phases, with $907.8K in 24-hour volume, $180.3K in visible liquidity, and $649.1K in open interest.
The market should be read through the exact resolution wording and the quality of the latest evidence, not through a broad headline interpretation.
This analysis is provided for informational and editorial purposes only. Market signal prices reflect market-implied expectations, not verified outcomes or recommendations. Markets can be illiquid, volatile, and subject to ambiguous resolution criteria.