Elon Musk # tweets July 24 – July 31, 2026?

What is happening now

As of July 25 2026 16:43 UTC, the Polymarket event “Elon Musk # tweets July 24 – July 31, 2026?” is live and one day into its seven‑day window. The market resolves at July 31 2026 16:00 UTC based on the number of main‑feed posts, quote posts and reposts made by @elonmusk on X (formerly Twitter) between July 24 12:00 PM ET and July 31 12:00 PM ET. Replies are excluded unless they appear on the main feed, and deleted posts count if they remain visible for roughly five minutes. The resolution feed is the “Post Counter” displayed at xtracker.polymarket.com, with x.com/elonmusk as a backup source.

The market has already attracted substantial activity: total volume exceeds $644 k, with $318 k traded in the last 24 hours, and open interest stands at roughly 179 k USD. Prices for the individual binary markets show that the market assigns the highest likelihood to the 240‑259 tweet band, while the 60‑79 band (the specific market quoted in the event title) is priced at a mere 0.05 % chance of a “Yes” outcome.

How the market is structured

The event is not a single yes/no question but a “price ladder” (also called a range market) composed of 26 contiguous, mutually exclusive binary markets. Each market asks whether Musk’s tweet count will fall inside a specific interval:

• 0‑19, 20‑39, 40‑59, 60‑79, 80‑99, 100‑119, 120‑139, 140‑159, 160‑179, 180‑199, 200‑219, 220‑239, 240‑259, 260‑279, 280‑299, 300‑319, 320‑339, 340‑359, 360‑379, 380‑399, 400‑419, 420‑439, 440‑459, 460‑479, 480‑499, 500+.

For each interval, traders can buy “Yes” (the count lands in that range) or “No” (it lands elsewhere). The prices of the “Yes” sides implicitly give a probability distribution over the possible totals. As of the latest update, the “Yes” prices rise from 0.0005 for the 60‑79 band to a peak of 0.1475 (14.75 %) for the 240‑259 band, then decline again for higher bands. Consequently, the “No” side of the 240‑259 market is priced at 0.8525 (85.25 %), indicating that the market believes there is roughly an 85 % chance the final total will fall outside that range.

The Polymarket event page aggregates these binaries and displays an “implied range” – the interval with the highest “Yes” price – as the current market signal.

Path to the leading outcome

The leading outcome, according to the ladder, is the 240‑259 tweet interval. To land in this band, Musk must accumulate between 240 and 259 tweets over the seven‑day period. With one day already elapsed, he would need to average roughly 34‑37 tweets per day across the remaining six days to reach the midpoint of the band.

Historical context helps gauge feasibility. Over the past several months, Musk’s daily tweet volume has varied widely, often spiking above 100 tweets during product announcements or major news cycles and dropping below 20 tweets during quieter periods. The tracker at xtracker.polymarket.com shows that, in the first 24 hours of this market, Musk posted a number of tweets consistent with his recent weekday average (the exact figure is publicly visible on the tracker). Sustaining a daily rate in the mid‑30s would therefore require a moderate but steady