Will Iran Launch a Military Strike on a Gulf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market…
Closed marketGrouped market event
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
The market has several possible outcomes. The display focuses on the highest priced live outcomes.
Primary signalYes
Probability93.5%
ResolutionJul 15, 2026
ResolutionJul 15, 2026
Signal board
Source on PolymarketPrice, depth and useful dates
An editorial view of the signal: what leads, how much activity is behind it, and which date carries the risk.
Grouped market eventYesLeading outcome
Total volume$1.4MAll-time traded activity
24 hour volume$379.0KRecent market attention
Liquidity$3.8MDepth available around prices
Open interest$778.6KCapital still exposed
ResolutionJul 15, 2026Next active phase close
Price convictionStrongLeader is priced with very high conviction.
Active scenarios
Open phases onlyGrouped market event
93.5%
82.5%
82.0%
81.5%
80.5%
Editorial analysisCurrent situation and market structure
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Editorial market brief.
This analysis is provided for informational and editorial purposes only. Market signal prices reflect market-implied expectations, not verified outcomes or recommendations. Markets can be illiquid, volatile, and subject to ambiguous resolution criteria.
This analysis is provided for informational and editorial purposes only. Market signal prices reflect market-implied expectations, not verified outcomes or recommendations. Markets can be illiquid, volatile, and subject to ambiguous resolution criteria.