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Event: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner. The market is about which p…

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the…

Closed marketArchived market

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

Primary signalNo
Probability100.0%
ResolutionSep 20, 2026
ResolutionSep 20, 2026
Signal board

Price, depth and useful dates

An editorial view of the signal: what leads, how much activity is behind it, and which date carries the risk.

Source on Polymarket
Archived marketNoNo
Total volume$2.4MAll-time traded activity
24 hour volume$552.2KRecent market attention
Liquidity$108.3KDepth available around prices
Open interest$576.5KCapital still exposed
ResolutionSep 20, 2026Next active phase close
Price convictionStrongLeader is priced with very high conviction.
Active scenarios

Archived market

Open phases only
NoWill CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
100.0%
YesWill CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
0.0%
Editorial analysisCurrent situation and market structure

What is happening now

The Polymarket event Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner is pricing the outcome of the German state election (Landtag) scheduled for September 20, 2026. With the election just two days away, the market has collapsed into a tight, two-horse race between the incumbent SPD (Social Democratic Party) and the opposition AfD (Alternative for Germany). All other major parties—including the CDU, Grüne, FDP, Linke, FW, and BSW—are priced at virtually zero probability (0.05% Yes, 99.95% No) of winning the most seats. The market currently prices the SPD at a slight edge of 52.5% (Yes) compared to the AfD at 47.5% (Yes), reflecting a highly contested, dead-heat election.

Note: The provided web research focused on US crypto legislation (the CLARITY Act and Senate cloture vote) and Bitcoin ETF flows, which are unrelated to this German state election market. The analysis below is based strictly on the live market data and resolution rules for the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election.

How the market is structured

This is a multi-market, grouped event consisting of eight individual binary (Yes/No) contracts, each asking whether a specific political party will win the greatest number of seats in the state parliament. Because only one party can win the plurality of seats, the outcomes are mutually exclusive under normal circumstances, though the contract rules include explicit tie-breaker mechanisms.

The leading outcomes and their current pricing are:

  • SPD (Yes): 52.5% (No: 47.5%)
  • AfD (Yes): 47.5% (No: 52.5%)
  • Other Parties (CDU, Grüne, FDP, Linke, FW, BSW):
    Editorial market brief.
    This analysis is provided for informational and editorial purposes only. Market signal prices reflect market-implied expectations, not verified outcomes or recommendations. Markets can be illiquid, volatile, and subject to ambiguous resolution criteria.