Sweden 2026 Election: Which Party Wins Second Most Seats?

What is happening now

Polymarket’s “Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place” event is pricing the runner-up in the September 13, 2026 Riksdag election. The market data shows a timestamp of 2026-09-13T21:13:12Z — election day — with all nine constituent markets marked expired_pending_resolution. Total volume is $493.6K, with $248K traded in the last 24 hours and $246.7K of liquidity. Open interest stands at $190.4K. The Moderate Party (M) is the overwhelming consensus pick for second place at 99.35% (Yes price 0.9935), while every other listed party trades at or below 0.5% for a Yes outcome.

How the market is structured

This is a multi-market event comprising nine separate binary (Yes/No) markets, one per party. Each market asks: “Will [Party] win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?” Resolution follows the official seat count from the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten). Tie-breakers: (1) total valid votes, (2) alphabetical order of party abbreviations. If no election occurs by December 31, 2026, all markets resolve to “Other.” The nine parties are: Social Democrats (S), Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Centre Party (C), Left Party (V), Christian Democrats (KD), Green Party (MP), Liberals (L), and Citizens’ Coalition (MED).

Path to the leading outcome

• Moderate Party (M) at 99.35% — This price implies near-certainty that M finishes second in seats. For this to resolve Yes, M must win fewer seats than the first-place party (likely the Social Democrats or Sweden Democrats per current polling) but more than every other party.
• The market’s extreme skew suggests participants have either incorporated late-breaking polling, exit-poll data, or early count indications available on election day.

What could change the pricing

• Official count deviations — If the final seat tally shows SD or S in second place, the M market would resolve No and the corresponding party’s market would resolve Yes.
• Recounts or legal challenges — Valmyndigheten’s certified results are the ultimate resolution source; any dispute delaying certification would keep markets in pending_resolution.
• Turnout or threshold effects — A party falling below the 4% national threshold (or 12% in a constituency) could reshuffle seat allocations, though this is unlikely to affect the top three parties.

Editorial read

The order book tells a clear story: traders have all but crowned the Moderate Party as the runner-up. The M market’s $161K volume and 99.35% Yes price dwarf the next-most-traded market, Sweden Democrats (SD) at $254K volume but only 0.5% Yes — a pattern consistent with hedging or long-shot speculation rather than genuine belief in an SD second place. The Social Democrats (S) market shows $51K volume at 0.1% Yes, confirming the market expects S to finish first, not second.

Liquidity is concentrated in the top three markets (M, SD, S), while the six smaller parties each hold $16K–$22K of liquidity but negligible volume, acting as lottery tickets. The expired_pending_resolution status on election evening suggests the market closed on schedule and is now awaiting Valmyndigheten’s official seat count. Until that certification, the 99.35% price is a prediction, not a settled fact — but the volume-weighted conviction is unusually high for a multi-outcome political market.

Note: The provided web research covered unrelated Polymarket events (CLARITY Act, Fed rates, Bitcoin, Perps). No Sweden-specific polling or election-day reporting was available in the research corpus; this brief relies solely on the supplied market data and Polymarket’s stated resolution rules.