Event: Bitcoin price thresholds for September 7-13, 2026
What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
This is a threshold ladder. The useful signal is the implied range, not every single strike.
Price, depth and useful dates
An editorial view of the signal: what leads, how much activity is behind it, and which date carries the risk.
Price threshold range
What is happening now
Polymarket’s “What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?” event is a live price-threshold ladder covering the trading week of September 7–13, 2026, with resolution set for September 14 at 4:00 AM UTC. The market is mid-window — updated as of September 11 — and is pricing in a tight implied range for Bitcoin. The most actively traded and leading outcome is the ↑ $78,000 reach market (market ID 4472271), where “Yes” shares trade at 52.5¢, implying the crowd assigns roughly a coin-flip probability that Bitcoin’s high during the week touches $78,000. Meanwhile, the ↑ $80,000 market sits at just 5.5¢ Yes (94.5% No), and the ↓ $74,000 dip market is at 5.5¢ Yes (94.5% No). The structure collectively implies Bitcoin is expected to remain range-bound between roughly $74,000 and $78,000 through the week.
How the market is structured
This is not a single binary market but a price threshold ladder composed of 15+ independent binary sub-markets, each resolving to Yes/No based on whether any Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle during the September 7–13 window (12:00 AM ET to 11:59 PM ET) reaches or breaches a specific price level. The resolution source is exclusively Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data — no other exchange or trading pair is considered.
- Upside thresholds (↑): $94k, $92k, $90k, $88k, $86k, $84k, $82k, $80k, $78k — each asks “Will Bitcoin reach $X?”
- Downside thresholds (↓): $78k, $76k, $74k, $72k, $70k, $68k, $66k — each asks “Will Bitcoin dip to $X?”
- Some earlier-phase markets have already closed and resolved to “Yes” (e.g., the $78k dip and $78k reach markets from prior listing iterations), confirming that Bitcoin did touch $78,000 at some point during the window.
The leading active outcome is ↑ $78,000 at 52.5% Yes, with the next most meaningful active signals being ↓ $76,000 at 37% Yes (63% No) and ↑ $80,000 at 5.5% Yes (94.5% No). The implied range is therefore approximately $74,000–$78,000.
Path to the leading outcome (↑ $78,000)
For the leading outcome to resolve “Yes,” Bitcoin must print a 1-minute candle high of at least $78,000 on Binance BTC/USDT at any point between September 7 and September 13. Given that earlier-phase $78,000 markets already resolved “Yes,” Bitcoin has already touched this level during the window. The 52.5% probability on the current active market suggests traders believe there is roughly even odds of a retest or sustained move to that level before the week closes.
What could change the pricing
Several catalysts could shift probabilities across the ladder:
- Upward moves: Positive macro data (cooler-than-expected CPI or PCE, dovish Fed signals), spot Bitcoin ETF inflows or new ETF approvals, major corporate treasury announcements, or a broad risk-on rally could push Bitcoin through $78,000 and toward $80,000, lifting Yes prices on the upside thresholds.
- Downward
Editorial market brief.
This analysis is provided for informational and editorial purposes only. Market signal prices reflect market-implied expectations, not verified outcomes or recommendations. Markets can be illiquid, volatile, and subject to ambiguous resolution criteria.