Will Hamas Disarm by December 31, 2026? Market Signals and Deadline Analysis

What is happening now

The Polymarket event “Will Hamas agree to disarm by…?” is displaying a single active market: December 31, 2026, with the “Yes” side trading at 88.5¢ and the “No” side at 11.5¢. The event has a date-ladder structure, meaning several deadline markets were grouped together; the earlier deadlines (November 30, 2025; February 28, March 31, and June 30, 2026) have all closed and resolved to “No,” indicating Hamas did not announce disarmament by those dates. The December 31, 2026 market is the only one still open for trading, with a resolution deadline of December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. As of the latest update, the market has attracted $2.48M in total volume and $372K in 24-hour volume, with roughly $62K in liquidity and $176K in open interest.

How the market is structured

This is a binary, date-ladder event. The display model groups multiple deadline markets under one event slug, but only the December 31, 2026 market (ID 2747434) remains tradeable. The question is straightforward: “Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?” The “Yes” outcome resolves if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by the deadline; “No” resolves otherwise. The market uses a 5-cent threshold for settlement, meaning the price must move at least 5 cents from the current level for the market to be considered resolved early or for the outcome to shift materially.

Path to the leading outcome

The leading outcome is “Yes” at 88.5%, implying the crowd-sourced probability that Hamas will announce disarmament by December 31, 2026. For this to resolve, the market requires a credible, official announcement from Hamas’s widely acknowledged leadership. The description specifies that “disarm” means a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Partial disarmament—such as surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a specific region—would qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Crucially, informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, or statements of intent without a formal policy directive will not qualify. The primary resolution sources are official statements from Hamas leadership, though a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a disarmament policy has been instituted would also suffice.

What could change the pricing

The 88.5% price implies a strong market conviction, but several factors could move it lower. A significant shift would require evidence that Hamas is not pursuing disarmament, such as official statements reaffirming its military structure, renewed hostilities that make disarmament politically impossible, or credible reporting that negotiations have stalled. Conversely, the price could rise further if there are concrete steps toward disarmament—such as the release of a formal Hamas policy directive, a public statement from a senior Hamas leader, or credible reporting from major news agencies confirming that a disarmament process has been formally adopted. The market’s high volume and open interest suggest active participation, so any major development in Gaza ceasefire negotiations or Hamas leadership statements could trigger rapid repricing.

Editorial read

The December 31, 2026 market is the last active leg of a date ladder that has already seen four earlier deadlines expire with “No” resolutions, meaning the market has been waiting for a Hamas disarmament announcement for over a year. The 88.5% “Yes” price is strikingly high given that no disarmament has occurred by any of the prior deadlines, which suggests the market is either pricing in a late-stage diplomatic breakthrough or reflecting a speculative consensus that a deal is imminent. The $372K in 24-hour volume and $62K in liquidity indicate a reasonably active market, though the open interest of $176K is modest relative to the total event volume, suggesting that much of the earlier trading has already settled. The resolution mechanics are strict: only official Hamas announcements or a wide consensus of credible reporting will count, and conditional or informal statements will not. Readers should watch for any formal Hamas policy directive or credible reporting from major news wires as the December 31, 2026 deadline approaches, as these are the only catalysts that could move the market from its current elevated level.