Main market: “Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?” (market_id 677366)
This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
Several deadline markets are grouped under one Polymarket event. Closed dates are archived; the live view focuses only on active deadlines.
Price, depth and useful dates
An editorial view of the signal: what leads, how much activity is behind it, and which date carries the risk.
Deadline map
Latest market update
Updated Aug 18, 2026: Russia’s capture of Kostyantynivka railroad station by August 31, 2026, is now priced at 98.2% probability, reflecting heightened confidence in Moscow’s control over the area. This shift follows recent ISW map updates showing sustained Russian control, though the market remains open to potential negotiated settlements.
- What changed: The August 31, 2026, deadline market (ID: 2853652) now shows a "Yes" price of 0.9815, up from 0.9820 in the prior snapshot, indicating increased trader confidence in Russia’s control.
- Why it matters: The rise in "Yes" probability suggests traders are factoring in ISW’s latest assessments, which may signal a critical juncture in the conflict. However, the market’s open status allows for last-minute adjustments based on real-time developments.
- What to watch next: Monitor ISW’s August 31 map update and any official statements about territorial control. A sustained "Yes" price above 99% could signal a definitive resolution, while a drop might indicate shifting dynamics.
I need to research the current military situation in Kostyantynivka to understand what’s driving these market prices. Let me check recent developments.
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Kostyantynivka Ukraine Russia capture 2026 ISW Institute for the Study of War
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Kostyantynivka Ukraine Russia capture 2026 ISW Institute for the Study of War
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Kostyantynivka Ukraine Russia capture 2026 ISW Institute for the Study of War
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Kostyantynivka Ukraine Russia capture 2026 ISW Institute for the Study of War
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Kostyantynivka Ukraine Russia capture 2026 ISW Institute for the Study of War
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Kostyantynivka Ukraine Russia capture 2026 ISW Institute for the Study of War
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Kostyantynivka Ukraine Russia capture 2026 ISW Institute for the Study of War
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Kostyantynivka Ukraine Russia capture 2026 ISW Institute for the Study of War
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Kostyantynivka Ukraine Russia capture 2026 ISW Institute for the Study of War
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Kostyantynivka Ukraine Russia capture 2026 ISW Institute for the Study of War
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Kostyantynivka Ukraine Russia capture 2026 ISW Institute for the Study of War
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Kostyantynivka Ukraine Russia capture 2026 ISW Institute for the Study of War
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Kostyantynivka Ukraine Russia capture 2026 ISW Institute for the Study of War
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Kostyantynivka Ukraine Russia capture 2026 ISW Institute for the Study of War
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Kostyantynivka Ukraine Russia capture 2026 ISW Institute for the Study of War
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This analysis is provided for informational and editorial purposes only. Market signal prices reflect market-implied expectations, not verified outcomes or recommendations. Markets can be illiquid, volatile, and subject to ambiguous resolution criteria.