The memecoin OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) is trading cautiously near $7.86 this November 12, 2025, showing signs of a risky independence from the general market. Its notable decoupling from the Bitcoin market is raising alerts among investors. The asset is operating within a bearish technical pattern, and this independence could be detrimental if the broader crypto market rallies into the year’s end, according to data from TradingView.
Technical analysis shows TRUMP trading within an ascending wedge, a pattern that typically precedes declines. The most critical factor is the OFFICIAL TRUMP decoupling from Bitcoin, which sits at -0.44. In simple terms, TRUMP’s price tends to move in the opposite direction of the top cryptocurrency. Historically, Bitcoin often has a strong Q4; if that trend repeats, TRUMP could face significant downward pressure, remaining vulnerable as the rest of the market strengthens.
Can the CMF counteract trader skepticism?
Sentiment in the futures market worsens the outlook. Data from Coinglass on the funding rate shows a dominance of short positions over long positions. This reflects growing skepticism among traders and a lack of confidence in a sustainable recovery. This trend, affecting the token’s internal economy, suggests any rebound will be fragile.
However, a technical counterpoint exists. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator offers a glimmer of hope. The CMF is hovering near the -10.0 level, a zone that has historically marked temporary accumulation points for TRUMP. These levels have often preceded short-term bounces before corrections resume.
Despite the CMF, the overall structure remains bearish for the close of 2025. If TRUMP breaks down from the ascending wedge, technical analysis projects a potential 19% drop toward the $6.24 support level. Alternatively, a short-term bounce based on the CMF could push the price to test the $9.00 resistance. However, the dominant trend and weak sentiment suggest a deeper correction is the most likely scenario.
