Pi Coin shows relative bullish movements in a red market, but those changes occur mainly in proxy instruments and not in the freely tradable native coin. Full conversion depends on the Open Mainnet scheduled for 20 February 2025, a context that conditions the interpretation of any “breakout” and forces investors and product teams to prioritize traceability, KYC/AML and custody preparations.
The project remains in a phase called Enclosed Mainnet, which prevents the free transfer of the native asset and delays the formation of a genuine market price. This operational restriction means the native asset is not freely transferable, shaping how current price references should be read.
The assets traded on platforms such as CEX.IO, HTX, OKX, Bitget and MEXC are IOU tokens; an IOU token is a promissory instrument that reflects expectations about future valuation but does not guarantee immediate convertibility. IOU tokens mirror expectations, not immediate convertibility or final pricing, and therefore function as proxies rather than the native Pi Coin.
The project’s core team has worked on KYC processes that, according to the organization, have unlocked more than 500,000 pioneers for migration to Mainnet and has deployed Protocol v23 with decentralized KYC. Since its initiation in 2019 the network has gathered a community larger than 60 million users and an ecosystem with more than 10,000 applications, development that is functional within operational limits but has not yet translated into real liquidity for holders.
Pi Coin:enclosed Mainnet and the IOU market
In IOU markets there are abrupt price movements: rises of 4% or 15% in short periods and declines of up to 6.57% in 24 hours, reflecting a dynamic driven by sentiment and news more than by supply and demand of the native token. Sentiment and headline flow drive IOU price action more than native token fundamentals, which can amplify volatility.
Some technical indicators used by traders —such as bullish crossovers from descending channel patterns, MACD and entries in Capital Market Flow— appear on these instruments, but they operate on a proxy that may behave differently from the future released Pi Coin. Signals on proxies may diverge from the behavior of the future freely tradable Pi Coin, limiting their predictive value for the native asset.
Public estimates about future valuations vary widely, with forecasts ranging from stabilizations around $0.22 to optimistic scenarios toward $100–1,500 in 2030–2040 horizons; such projections depend on assumptions about decentralization, DeFi adoption and smart contract capabilities. Forecasts range widely and hinge on decentralization, DeFi adoption and smart contract execution, underscoring the uncertainty before the Open Mainnet.
For product and compliance teams, the main operational challenge is the technical and regulatory transition: preparing custody arrangements, reviewing KYC/AML controls before listings, and designing conversion and liquidity processes that mitigate market and counterparty risks. The priority is a robust transition plan covering custody, KYC/AML and conversion/liquidity design to handle listing-readiness and operational risks.
From a risk management perspective, an asset debuting via IOU requires clear disclosure policies, testing of withdrawal capacity and impact simulations on AUM/NAV in high volatility scenarios.
The prudent reading is that current gains reflect speculation on IOUs rather than the definitive valuation of Pi Coin, and the decisive test will be the effective market opening on 20 February 2025.
