The leading cryptocurrency’s current trading behavior reflects a historic macroeconomic disconnect, remaining below $100,000 despite the surge in global liquidity. A recent report from asset manager Bitwise points out that this Bitcoin valuation gap could be setting up a unique asymmetric opportunity heading into 2026. According to the firm’s analysts, the digital asset is significantly lagging behind money supply growth and gold’s record performance.
The analysis details that Bitcoin is currently undershooting its historical correlation with the global money supply (M2) by 66%. Bitwise’s cointegration model suggests that if the price were to adjust to its long-term liquidity anchor, the cryptocurrency’s “fair value” should be near $270,000. This mismatch implies a hypothetical upside of over 190%, provided the asset manages to revert its current trend and realign with monetary expansion.
In contrast, gold has absorbed most of the demand for shelter against monetary dilution in 2025. The precious metal now overshoots the global M2 money supply by 75%, indicating potential overbuying. This divergence strengthens the case for an imminent capital rotation, where investors could shift their profits from gold into a structurally undervalued Bitcoin, seeking more attractive risk-adjusted returns.
Is global liquidity the catalyst Bitcoin needs to take off?
The current macroeconomic environment is decidedly favorable for the reflation of risk assets. The United States is issuing nearly $1.9 trillion in Treasurys per year, and the Federal Reserve ended its quantitative tightening program on December 1. Additionally, powers like China and Japan have approved massive stimulus packages totaling trillions of dollars. With global M2 money supply reaching a record $137 trillion, Bitcoin’s absolute scarcity should theoretically act as a sensitive barometer for this dilution.
However, despite these fundamentals, the market price has not yet reacted. Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, noted that Bitcoin’s trend setup currently trails gold in terms of momentum and Sharpe ratio. Timmer described the two assets as “polar opposites” at this moment, although he highlighted that the cryptocurrency remains aligned with its long-term adoption curve, behaving like “gold’s precocious younger sibling” that is simply less volatile at this stage.
Will Bitcoin be able to reclaim its throne as the star asset for 2026?
The current situation presents a potentially explosive mean-reversion scenario. If history is any guide, Bitcoin tends to react with a lag but with greater magnitude to liquidity cycles. The combination of expansive global monetary policy and such a deep Bitcoin valuation gap suggests that the market may be drastically underestimating the asset’s potential. Institutional investors could view these prices as a discounted entry point before an upward correction.
To conclude, while the current price may seem disappointing to some, structural indicators point to an accumulation of bullish energy. The relative undervaluation against gold and global liquidity does not usually last indefinitely. It is expected that as capital rotates and seeks value, Bitcoin will close this gap and validate its role as a hedge against monetary debasement in the next economic cycle.
