XRP staged an intraday recovery but failed to clear the psychologically and technically significant $2 mark, even as exchange-held balances fell to an eight‑year low. Data show a sharp reduction in on‑exchange supply alongside persistent resistance and market-structure headwinds.
Exchange reserves of XRP have plunged in recent months. Some outlets reported roughly a 50% decline since October 2025, and one tracker noted about 430 million XRP exiting exchanges over an eight‑day span, placing balances near multi‑year lows, according to data. Proponents argue this reduces selling pressure and creates a supply squeeze that could amplify inflows.
Analysts who model institutional demand point to the potential effect of ETFs: data reported by Finbold suggested each $1 billion of ETF inflows could add roughly $0.40–$0.50 to XRP’s price, a mechanism that underpins bullish scenarios stretching into double‑digit targets under sustained, large inflows.
Technical structure, manipulation claims and trader implications
Technically, XRP is layered beneath several resistance bands that have repeatedly halted advances. Market commentary aggregated in the source material lists near‑term resistances at $1.88, $1.96 and the $2.00 level, with a decisive breach above $2.22 frequently cited as a trigger for sustained upside toward $2.60 and beyond. Support has been noted around $1.78–$1.87.
Complicating price discovery are repeated allegations of coordinated sell pressure and large transfers during low‑liquidity windows. Market observers and some ledger validators flagged suspicious flows and concentrated dumps, an issue raised in several reports and community posts. Such activity can mute the effect of shrinking exchange supply by suppressing demand or triggering stop‑loss cascades when order books thin.
Historical context matters: approval odds for XRP ETFs had been quoted as high by late 2025, and some analysts expected institutional custodial demand to bring a lasting liquidity shift. Those expectations remain part of the bullish case, but earlier inflows and regulatory developments in 2025 produced mixed price outcomes, reminding traders of volatility and timing risk.
Investors and crypto treasuries will be watching ETF-related flows and order‑book liquidity as the coming test of the supply‑shock thesis. If significant off‑exchange custody and steady institutional buying arrive, available market liquidity could tighten further and push price action beyond the $2 barrier; absent that, XRP risks extended consolidation or another pullback.
