Ark Invest released its Big Ideas 2026 report, projecting the digital-asset market could expand to about $28 trillion by 2030. The firm attributed that growth to Bitcoin’s institutional adoption, widespread tokenization of real-world assets, and maturation of smart-contract infrastructure.
Accelerating institutional flows — including U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs — and what Ark described as Bitcoin’s evolution into “digital gold” have strengthened its store-of-value narrative. Ark also noted reduced volatility and more muted drawdowns in 2025, which the firm said reinforced institutional interest.
The forecast implies a compound annual growth rate in the 61–63% range and frames digital assets as moving from a speculative niche toward a foundational layer of global finance, according to the report.
On tokenization, the report argued that distributed-ledger technology, improved custody and on-chain settlement, and clearer regulatory frameworks are lowering barriers for traditional finance to move assets on-chain. Ark highlighted tokenization’s potential to unlock liquidity in illiquid markets, cut operational costs through automation, and broaden access to asset classes previously out of reach for many investors.
Market implications for Ark and operation risks
Ark framed smart-contract platforms — notably a concentrated set of Layer-1 networks — as the programmable infrastructure that will host tokenized assets and new financial primitives. The firm expects market consolidation, with a few dominant networks capturing most value and revenue generation from on-chain services becoming a material contributor to total market capitalization.
At the same time, Ark’s scenario depends on several conditional factors: persistent institutional demand, continued ETF inflows, technical scalability and finality improvements, and evolving regulatory clarity in key jurisdictions. Those dependencies create execution risk; if any weaken, the pace or scale of the projected shift could slow materially.
Investors and market participants will be watching practical signals over the coming years — ETF capital flows, tokenization pilots for treasuries and commodities, and revenue trends on major smart-contract networks — as tests of the thesis that Bitcoin and tokenization can reshape the global financial system by 2030.
