Spot gold climbed to a fresh peak on January 26, touching about $5,100 per ounce and marking a clear split with Bitcoin’s stalled performance. The move reflected heavy safe‑haven flows amid geopolitical and monetary uncertainty, reshaping the short‑term narrative for institutional investors and crypto treasuries.
Gold’s advance was led by central bank and institutional buying and was amplified by broader market jitters. Traders and treasurers reassessed risk exposures as precious metals outperformed digital assets during the episode.
Gold’s rally was sustained, not a single intraday spike. Spot prices first breached $5,012.11 in early 2025 and later reached roughly $5,100 on January 26, 2026. February futures settled near $5,029. For the year 2025, gold returned about 64%, its largest annual gain since 1979.
Analysts pointed to a mix of catalysts: heightened geopolitical tensions — including trade frictions between Canada and China and US shutdown risks — plus easing US monetary policy expectations and active central bank purchases. These factors pushed institutional demand for physical and paper gold as a liquidity‑independent hedge.
By contrast, Bitcoin traded around $86,000–$87,000 during the same window, roughly 30% below its prior peak, underscoring a widening macro–crypto divergence. Market commentary noted that gold’s lack of reliance on internet infrastructure strengthens its role as a reserve asset; bitcoin’s higher volatility and operational dependencies left it more exposed in the recent risk re‑pricing.
Drivers of the rally and the macro split with Bitcoin
‘A regime shift,’ some analysts said, describing the pattern of durable flows into gold rather than a short‑lived flight to safety. The phrase captured the market view that investors were temporarily privileging tangible stores of value over digital alternatives.
Price targets from major and independent forecasters vary. Goldman Sachs projects about $5,400 by December 2026, Metals Focus sees a peak near $5,500, and one independent analyst proposed a higher $6,400 figure. These projections will be tested as geopolitical risk and monetary policy signals evolve.
Authors cautioned about speculative excess and the potential for a correction if geopolitical tensions ease or liquidity conditions tighten. For traders, that implies heightened volatility and a need for defined stop levels; for corporate treasuries, it suggests attention to allocation, storage costs and counterparty exposures when increasing gold weights.
Investors and treasuries are now watching end‑2026 forecasts and central bank buying activity as the next major reference points for validating the thesis that gold, rather than bitcoin, will lead safe‑haven allocations through the coming quarters.
