Citigroup, the Wall Street financial giant, has adjusted its projections regarding the Coinbase stock price this Friday, setting its target at $400 following the recent market downturn. According to analysts led by Peter Christiansen, this revision responds to a risk-off market environment and the notable decrease in institutional transactional volume observed recently.
Despite the figure representing a reduction from the previous $505, the experts maintain a buy/high risk rating for the platform’s shares. The report details that, following the 65% collapse from record highs, the exchange remains the undisputed category leader within the current digital financial ecosystem and broader industry.
Impact of volatility and institutional activity on revenue streams
The decrease in commercial activity, coupled with a more conservative participation from large capital holders, has forced a cut in net revenue forecasts for 2025. Now estimating approximately $1.69 billion, analysts project a 10% drop compared to previous estimates, which places the firm 4% below the general consensus of the global financial market.
Furthermore, the current valuation reflects the impact of a $2.3 billion mark-to-market adjustment due to the depreciation of its holdings in cryptocurrencies and its stake in Circle. Nevertheless, shares showed a 6% recovery in pre-market trading, attempting to stabilize while the market tries to recover from the crash suffered during last Thursday’s volatile session.
The delay in approving market structure laws in the United States, whose resolution is now expected beyond 2026, adds a layer of significant operational uncertainty. Because CEO Brian Armstrong withdrew support for certain bills deeming them harmful, regulatory clarity seems a distant goal for the digital asset industry currently operating in North America.
How does the US legislative paralysis affect the future of Coinbase?
On the other hand, the lack of consensus among lawmakers regarding stablecoin yields and other key provisions has slowed the momentum that the sector expected to receive this year. Despite these obstacles, Citigroup maintains that any progress on CLARITY legislation will function as the main catalyst to revive the momentum of the company’s securities on the stock exchange.
Thus, investors cautiously await the financial results that the company will officially present on February 12, looking for signals of continued operational resilience. Although the technical outlook appears challenging due to selling pressure, the new $400 target would still imply that the market value could potentially double from the most recent closing levels.
Looking ahead, the firm’s ability to navigate volatility and changes in monetary policy will determine if this Citi adjustment is merely a technical stop. It is expected that the platform’s leadership, bolstered by its robust infrastructure, will allow it to capitalize on eventual digital asset reform once Congress manages to unblock the current stagnant negotiations.
