Hedera (HBAR) is at a turning point, with the potential for a significant recovery if it breaks above the $0.10 level. Recent data suggests that a break above the $0.0907–$0.10 range could open the door to a move toward approximately $0.1252.
HBAR has been trading lower in recent days, although market data suggests that if these signals are resolved, it could recover by 30%. A bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) emerged in mid-December 2025, and a similar divergence in the Chaikin Money Flow has appeared during the same period, indicating weaker selling pressure and selective accumulation by larger players.
If HBAR establishes a strong support level in the $0.0907–$0.10 zone, analysts project a move toward $0.1252 and, in aggressive scenarios, targets between $0.14 and $0.16 by early March.
The 50-day EMA has been confirmed by crossing below the 200-day EMA, increasing the likelihood of prolonged bearish pressure. Fundamental indicators also weaken the case for a rapid recovery: Hedera’s Total Value Locked (TVL) fell from $122.5 million in September to approximately $56 million, a decline that reduces on-chain demand and limits structural upside potential until flows stabilize.
Can HBAR recover its level?
Derivatives and volume metrics reinforce the cautious view on HBAR. Futures funding rates were negative for a sustained period, reflecting short dominance, while On-Balance Volume has trended downward since October, signaling a decrease in market share.
HBAR’s price trajectory remains closely tied to Bitcoin: the token’s correlation with BTC was reported to be in the high range of 0.8–0.98, meaning any sustained advance for HBAR depends on Bitcoin stabilizing or a broader market relief move.
Analysts noted that a recovery to higher psychological levels for Bitcoin (the levels cited include $89,000–$90,000) would materially improve the likelihood of a rotation into altcoins and support a breakout from the High Rebound Average (HBAR). Conversely, a break below the BTC support levels cited in the analysis would likely deepen the losses from HBAR.
For traders and institutional participants, the practical takeaway is to monitor the $0.0907–$0.10 range and Bitcoin’s macro momentum. A confirmed move above that range, accompanied by improving funding rates and increasing on-chain flows, would validate the upside technical potential toward $0.1252 by early March.
