The Ethereum price recently reached its breakdown target near 1,800 dollars, experiencing a slight 23% rebound that, according to BeInCrypto analysts, lacks conviction. This movement, driven by short-term investors, occurs while long-term holders increase their sales by 82%, suggesting a persistent structural weakness in the asset today.
This rally, although it took the price from 1,740 dollars to higher levels, shows signs of technical exhaustion by forming a hidden bearish divergence on the daily RSI. Despite the fact that momentum seems to improve in short timeframes, the inability of the value to mark new highs indicates that sellers maintain control of the market currently.
The formation of a bear flag threatens the stability of the asset
On the 12-hour chart, the cryptocurrency’s structure has begun to draw a pole followed by an ascending channel, setting up a classic bear flag pattern. This type of formation usually precedes a continuation of the previous trend, which is why the risk of a deep correction remains latent for investors operating in the derivatives markets.
Furthermore, the On-Balance Volume indicator reflects a worrying lack of participation, as it does not accompany the price rise with a significant capital entry. This disconnection between volume and price action suggests that few real buyers support the movement, leaving the door open to a 50% drop if the flag support happens to break soon.
On the other hand, on-chain data reveals that the recovery of the short-term holder NUPL has been too fast, reaching levels similar to previous local tops. In March 2025, identical behavior preceded a real capitulation, where the cryptocurrency only found a lasting floor after a total cleansing of leveraged positions occurred.
Could the 1,500 dollar support prevent a major crash?
To prevent the value from heading towards the psychological zone of 1,000 dollars, it is essential for institutional demand to appear capable of absorbing the selling pressure. However, the net position change of “hodlers” shows that long-term investors are reducing their exposure, increasing capital outflows alarmingly during the last week of operations.
Likewise, the comparison with the April 2025 cycle suggests that total seller exhaustion has not yet been reached, a necessary element for a sustained recovery. In this way, if the panic is not completely cleared, the market could force a new drop towards the historical support levels located around the 1,470 dollar range.
Ultimately, the current scenario requires extreme monitoring of liquidation levels, as the break of the ascending channel could trigger a negative cascade effect. As long as volume remains stagnant, the probability that this rebound is a bull trap increases, keeping the 1,500 and 1,000 dollar targets active on the technical radar.
Considering these factors, the future of the network depends on its ability to attract new capital that stops the massive outflow from the oldest wallets. Without a solid accumulation base, the Ethereum price will remain vulnerable, facing one of the most critical stress tests since the beginning of the current corrective phase of the cycle.
