Despite recent weakness in Bitcoin’s short-term momentum, analysts maintain an optimistic outlook. Research firms like Tiger Research are projecting a $200,000 target for the fourth quarter. Concurrently, the on-chain data platform CryptoQuant reported this Friday that Bitcoin’s long-term structural demand remains robust, signaling that the uptrend cycle is not over. This optimism is based on strong Bitcoin accumulation by ‘dolphins’.
CryptoQuant’s analysis focuses on the ‘dolphin’ cohort, which are wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC. This group is crucial as it includes ETFs, companies, and emerging large-scale holders. Currently, ‘dolphins’ hold 26% of the total supply, equating to 5.16 million BTC. Historically, changes in this group’s holdings have been the most consistent indicator of Bitcoin’s price momentum.
During 2025, this cohort was the only one to increase its balance year-over-year. They added over 681,000 BTC to their reserves while other groups saw net decreases. CryptoQuant highlights that the annual growth rate of dolphin assets remains positive. This suggests the bull cycle, while mature, is far from over. The market is in a late-stage maturity segment of the cycle.
Can Volatility Halt the Institutional Momentum?
Although structural demand is strong, analysts warn of immediate challenges. The October 10 crash weakened short-term momentum. CryptoQuant notes that a new accumulation phase is needed to overcome the $126,000 level. Short-term resistance is identified at $115,000, with immediate support at $100,000. A break below this support could trigger a significant correction down to $75,000.
However, Tiger Research offers a more bullish view. They argue the recent crash demonstrated the market’s transition toward institutional leadership. Unlike in 2021, institutional investors continued buying after the correction. This firm believes continued Federal Reserve rate cuts will be a key catalyst. Further institutional entry during the current consolidation could propel the price toward the $200,000 target.
The current situation presents a scenario of short-term caution but long-term optimism. While the price needs to regain its monthly momentum, the Bitcoin accumulation by ‘dolphins’ and institutions suggests the underlying demand remains intact. The coming weeks will be crucial to determine if the market accelerates again toward new all-time highs.
