Arthur Hayes, who helped start BitMEX and now runs money, says one Bitcoin will trade for one million dollars before 2028 ends. At the same time, Japan’s new prime minister is drawing up a giant stimulus plan. The overlap of loose money policy and heavy government spending creates both danger plus reward for investors, treasurers and crypto markets.
Hayes builds his forecast on “the inevitable erosion of fiat”. He means that whenever growth slows, governments and central banks print more money. Extra money lowers the value of ordinary currencies but also pushes wealth into things that cannot be copied. In his view, Bitcoin fits that role because its code forbids more than twenty one million coins ever to exist.
He admits his numbers wobble and pins wide brackets with the risk of sudden slides. He draws paths that land near $250,000 soon, stretch up to $3.2 – $3.4 million by 2028, or crash to $100,000 if a macro shock hits.
Japan’s stimulus and implications for crypto
While Hayes talks about coded scarcity, Japan’s new cabinet drafts its next giveaway. The country already launched a ¥21.9 trillion bundle and the coming round is tipped to top ¥13.9 trillion, roughly ninety two billion dollars. The draft lists help for power bills, cash for regions, a pause on a gasoline surcharge and a higher tax free pay bracket. Hayes treats each item as extra fuel for his story of currency debasement.
The mix of big spending and the threat of even looser money can steer funds toward crypto — yet the road stays rough. Main angles follow:
2028 marks the focal date, but events along the way can bend the path. Next checkpoint — Japan’s cabinet must roll out the stimulus plan around the close of 2025. That moment will show whether the backdrop drives more money into Bitcoin or undercuts the claim.
The practical takeaway is that policy-driven liquidity and fiscal expansion could funnel capital toward Bitcoin, but investors should weigh the large ranges Hayes outlines and the possibility of macro shocks while tracking Japan’s stimulus timeline into 2025 and the path to 2028.
