Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below the key psychological support of $100,000, trading below $95,000 this Friday. The sell-off was driven by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and selling pressure from whales. Now, a technical analysis by analyst @follis_ on X warns that a Wyckoff distribution pattern in Bitcoin could take the price to $86,000.
Analyst @follis_ highlighted that the recent price structure closely follows the classic distribution model. He suggested the bull market “might actually be over.” According to this schematic, the rally above $122,000 marked the “Buying Climax” (BC). The early October move toward $126,200 functioned as an “Upthrust After Distribution” (UTAD), a final bull trap signaling demand exhaustion. By losing the $110,000 and $104,000 supports, BTC confirmed Phase D and has now entered Phase E, the markdown phase.
Is the $94,000 Support Level the Last Line of Defense for Bulls?
The Wyckoff method projects a primary bearish target at $86,000. This technical shift coincides with deteriorating global risk appetite. The Federal Reserve appears unwilling to cut interest rates in December. Furthermore, uncertainty in the economy from the recent US government shutdown affected risk assets, dragging Bitcoin down along with US stocks.
However, not all analysts are bearish. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, noted that the broader uptrend remains intact. It will hold as long as the price does not fall below $94,000. This level is crucial, as it represents the average cost basis for 6 to 12-month holders. On the other hand, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley suggested that the six-month bear market might be ending and that “the setup for crypto right now has never been stronger.”
BTC’s price is struggling to hold above the critical $94,000 support. The battle between the bearish Wyckoff distribution pattern in Bitcoin and the support from medium-term holders will define the market’s direction. A break of $94,000 would confirm the projection to $86,000, while a bounce would keep bullish hopes alive.
