TL;DR
- BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin is heading toward new all-time highs, driven by a mix of U.S. policy shifts, regulatory clarity around stablecoins, and ongoing geopolitical instability.
- The GENIUS Act and changes to SLR rules are seen as pro-bank and pro-crypto.
- Meanwhile, a weakening U.S. dollar is enhancing Bitcoin’s role as a global store of value.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto derivatives platform BitMEX, has shared a bullish outlook on Bitcoin’s near-term future. Posting to his 704,000+ followers on X, Hayes argued that a combination of regulatory shifts, central bank policies, and global tensions are laying the groundwork for BTC to climb beyond its previous highs.
US Reforms Are Fueling Institutional Crypto Growth
Hayes pointed to recent progress on the Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) exemption, which would allow banks to hold more U.S. Treasuries without increasing their leverage ratios. This move would enhance bank liquidity and, indirectly, their capacity to support digital assets like stablecoins.
He also highlighted the recently passed GENIUS Act, which creates a structured legal framework for stablecoins in the United States. Hayes believes this legislation essentially hands control of the stablecoin market to traditional banks, which he sees as a long-term win for both the crypto industry and the broader financial sector. Unlike restrictive regulations, the GENIUS Act offers a scalable path for crypto integration with mainstream finance. As more banks enter the space, institutional confidence in digital assets is expected to rise, potentially accelerating adoption among retail investors and corporations alike. Support for stablecoin innovation could also encourage new financial products tied to blockchain technology.
Geopolitical Risk and Dollar Decline Support Bitcoin’s Rise
Despite a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Iran, tensions in the Middle East remain unresolved. According to Hayes, this sustained risk environment supports safe-haven assets like Bitcoin, especially as global markets remain uneasy.
Hayes also warned about the global unwinding of the U.S. dollar carry trade. As the Federal Reserve leans toward rate cuts, the yield on dollar-based assets weakens. This reduces the appeal of holding dollars and makes Bitcoin more attractive as a decentralized alternative. Hayes argues that BTC is not just a hedge, it’s a necessary asset in a time of global financial transition.
Adding further weight to his outlook, Hayes emphasized that Bitcoin’s decentralized nature shields it from central bank manipulation, making it a strategic asset in times of monetary uncertainty.
“BTC all-time highs are coming,”
he declared, reaffirming his stance with confidence in the asset’s long-term fundamentals.
