Ethereum rose past the $3,000 mark, a psychological barrier investors had watched closely, but material headwinds now temper the case for a push to $4,000. Market data and on‑chain metrics point to concentrated overhead supply, reduced whale accumulation and mixed institutional flows as the primary constraints.
Large holders have pulled back from aggressive accumulation, a dynamic that historically precedes sustained rallies. Data show an overhead supply zone between $3,151 and $3,179 where roughly 2.8 million ETH were accumulated; that zone will create selling pressure as prices approach it.
The report also notes that about 40% of circulating supply is trading underwater, increasing the probability of stop‑losses and break‑even sales during failed rallies.
Institutional sentiment has been mixed. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a net outflow of $72 million across 2025, with an additional $9.6 million withdrawn, led by BlackRock’s ETHA.
The macroeconomic context of Ethereum
These outflows reduce the liquidity buffer needed for a sustained upward move. On one hand, there is concentrated supply in the upper range around $3,151–$3,179 (approximately 2.8 million ETH).
On the other hand, there is also a notable reduction in whale accumulation, leading to a constant reassessment of positions. This creates some macroeconomic uncertainty despite declining inflation and anticipated policy changes.
Technically, a decisive breakout above the $3,131 trigger will be required to change market structure and draw fresh buyers. Failure to clear that level will likely keep ETH in consolidation, with sellers absorbing rallies rather than a clean advance toward $4,000.
On fundamentals, Ethereum has recorded a surge in smart contract deployments in Q4 2025, but that activity has not yet translated into sustained price momentum. Meanwhile, Ethereum has lagged Bitcoin on a year‑to‑date basis, a performance gap that adds another headwind for bulls.
Investors are now turning their attention to whether ETH can decisively clear the $3,131 level and to Q1 ETF flow patterns and macro policy shifts in 2026, which will determine whether demand can absorb the existing overhead supply and make a sustained move toward $4,000 feasible.
