AI-driven forecasts, heavy institutional accumulation, and technical indicators are aligning to support a bullish setup for Ethereum into the holiday period. The central question in this Ethereum price prediction is whether ETH can retake and hold $3,200 by December 25, 2025, a level widely viewed as a pivotal technical and psychological barrier.
Multiple AI-based models project aggressive upside scenarios for ETH into late December 2025, with cited forecasts landing between $3,500 and $3,770. One generalized model assigns a 45% probability that ETH trades between $3,200 and $3,600 by December 25, and a 25% chance of exceeding $4,000.
Reinforcing these probabilities are market structure signals linked to reported institutional participation: a major purchase of 48,049 ETH in late December 2025 is highlighted as evidence of long-term conviction and supply locking. Alongside this, large addresses collectively accumulating near a million ETH and shrinking exchange inventories reduce immediate sell-side availability, a dynamic that can amplify upward price pressure.
Technical analysis in the forecasts points to momentum metrics that favor a rebound. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is described as recovering from oversold readings, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) exhibits bullish divergence, both interpreted as signs the recent downtrend has lost momentum. RSI is an oscillator that measures recent price change to indicate overbought or oversold conditions, and MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator that compares moving averages to signal shifts in direction.
Technical indicators and market structure supporting $3,200
Within these analyses, the $3,200 mark functions as a decisive pivot: a sustained re‑establishment above it, accompanied by expanding volume, would be read as a transition from resistance to support and as confirmation of buyer dominance. Observers also noted a prior intra‑period drop below $3,200 and low on‑exchange supply as near-term volatility drivers rather than long-term counters to the bullish case.
Technological developments are factored into the upside scenario, with the Fusaka upgrade in December 2025 presented as a key narrative catalyst. Fusaka is framed as a scaling-focused update intended to improve data propagation for Layer 2s; one component, Peer Data Availability Sampling (PeerDAS), is designed to accelerate and validate data availability between nodes.
PeerDAS streamlines how nodes check and share block data, improving L2 throughput. Forecasts suggest that advance notice and consensus around Fusaka, alongside potentially favorable macro trends, could strengthen investor appetite ahead of implementation.
Taken together, AI probabilities, concentrated institutional buying, and supportive technical signals outline a credible path for ETH to reclaim $3,200 by Christmas 2025, while acknowledging inherent market volatility. Next verified milestone: December 25, 2025.
