Ethereum may have marked its lowest point in the current cycle after touching $3,053 in early November 2025. Technical indicators, on-chain data and derivatives pressure point to a possible recovery that could take the price up to $4,000. This move has significant implications for institutional investors, derivatives traders and teams involved in liquidity and custody.
Technical analysis shows a bullish divergence on the 12-hour RSI chart, while the price of Ethereum held the critical $3,053 support with an immediate rebound. At the same time, the STH-NUPL indicator (Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) entered a capitulation zone, a pattern that has historically preceded market reversals.
On-chain, large addresses have accumulated approximately 0.04 million ETH (equivalent to about $134 million) in a short period. Additionally, the share of holders in the 3-6 month band has increased to 11.94% of supply, suggesting greater retention and lower turnover.
The derivatives market shows nearly $1.2 billion in short positions at risk between $3,320 and $3,740, which amplifies the possibility of a short squeeze if the price continues to rise. The current symmetrical triangle pattern indicates a volatility compression, where a confirmed close above $3,338 would consolidate the rebound scenario.
Technical and on-chain signals support the recovery
Net inflows of approximately $560 million into Ethereum-linked ETFs indicate institutional accumulation and lower susceptibility to retail sell-offs. The high concentration of short positions increases the risk of violent moves and the need for active margin management.
Upcoming protocol upgrades (Pectra and Fusaka) reinforce the narrative of sustainability and performance, elements valued by long-term investors.
The next verifiable milestone will be a close above $3,338, which would confirm the rebound scenario, while a decisive breakout with volume above $4,030 would be the catalyst for the trajectory toward $4,000 or higher to gain conviction among managers and traders.
