Hedera Hashgraph’s token HBAR is at risk of a 31% breakdown as technical patterns and market flows point to mounting downside pressure. A bearish pole-and-flag formation places a critical neckline at $0.108, while dip buyers and selective whale accumulation provide limited counterpressure.
The daily chart shows a pole-and-flag pattern that implies a 31% downside for HBAR if the neckline at $0.108 fails. Immediate resistance sits at $0.120; reclaiming that level would reduce near-term risk. A stronger momentum shift would require a decisive break above $0.126, and sustained strength beyond $0.139 would invalidate the bearish structure and open a more constructive outlook.
The Money Flow Index (MFI) is signalling mixed signals: hidden bearish divergence has been recorded alongside a bullish divergence between 9 and 29 december.
Net buying pressure has reportedly collapsed by more than 90%, signalling a sharp retreat of conviction-driven dip buyers. Institutional selling coincided with a 338% spike in trading volume during a pronounced price decline, amplifying immediate downside risk. Retail engagement appears muted, further weakening price support.
On-chain signals, flows and HBAR market structure
On-chain data shows wallets holding over 1 million and 10 million HBAR increased positions, indicating selective accumulation among large holders. Derivatives positioning has been predominantly short-biased over the past 30 days, though short exposure has been shrinking; some perpetual-futures winners have added long positions. These shifts point to a nuanced market: broad momentum favours bears, but smart-money moves and reduced shorting could limit the depth or duration of any capitulation.
The technical backdrop is therefore reconciliation of two forces: a structurally bearish chart pattern with high measured downside risk, and episodic buying from whales and select derivatives traders attempting to stabilize price.
The immediate price trajectory is being driven by sentiment and technicals rather than by protocol fundamentals. Hedera’s architecture and energy-efficient throughput — cited as an underlying value proposition — are noted as potential long-term supports, but these fundamentals are not currently reversing price momentum. Until buying returns with volume, the bear-flag scenario remains the base case for traders.
HBAR sits at a decisive junction: a sustained reclaim above $0.120 would relieve short-term pressure, while a confirmed breach below $0.108 would activate the 31% breakdown scenario toward the cited downside targets.
