Hedera (HBAR) requires an approximate 36.31% increase to recover the losses recorded, according to historical data analysis. The calculation starts from the opening price on November 1, 2025 ($0.198805) to the level observed on November 26, 2025 ($0.145841), representing a pullback of $0.052964.
The starting point used for the analysis was the average price on November 1, 2025, set at $0.198805, obtained from a consensus that includes references such as $0.2011, $0.19639, $0.2014 and $0.19633, according to data from CoinGecko and Investing.com. On November 26, 2025 the price stood around $0.145841, representing an absolute loss of $0.052964.
For HBAR to regain the initial level of the month, an upward move equivalent to 36.31% from the close of the date in question is required. An important operational nuance is that recovering lost capital requires a percentage change greater than the initial loss because the denominator changes after the pullback; traders and treasuries should consider this effect when calibrating entry points and hedging targets.
Potential catalysts and risk factors
Among the cited catalysts are speculation about an HBAR-focused ETF with a hypothesis of SEC approval toward the end of October 2025. Additionally, strategic partnerships are mentioned, such as integration with Chainlink, and listings on retail platforms that have influenced liquidity. An operational example was the inclusion on Robinhood in July 2025, which caused a 12% price uptick.
Regarding the market narrative, some analysts maintain a longer-term optimistic view of HBAR; those projections include targets of $1, $2 and up to $125.65 over 2030–2050 horizons, all labeled speculative. “The real move hasn’t started,” some analysts note, a phrase that reflects the divide between short-term views and expectations of technological adoption.
The technical read is clear: HBAR must recover $0.198805, which demands a 36.31% rally from the November 26, 2025 level to erase that month’s losses. Realization will depend on institutional catalysts and the evolution of derivatives sentiment.
