Hedera’s HBAR token posted a 3% gain during a session of high instability in the crypto market. This movement is part of a significant rebound from its daily lows. The HBAR price recovery occurs amidst contradictory technical signals and a growing disconnect from Bitcoin’s performance, capturing the attention of institutional investors.
The day’s data shows remarkable resilience for HBAR. Despite general bearish pressure, the asset found solid support at the $0.21 level. This rebound was driven by institutional buying, which absorbed available supply and allowed for an intraday recovery of up to 6% from its lowest point of $0.217. As a result, the price has stabilized in a range between $0.21 and $0.26, with a market capitalization of around $9.05 billion.
However, technical analysis calls for caution. HBAR’s correlation with Bitcoin has dropped to 0.48, its lowest level in two months. This desynchronization means that HBAR’s direction is less predictable based on Bitcoin’s movements. Furthermore, technical indicators are weakening. A potential “death cross” looms on the horizon, where the 50-day moving average threatens to cross below the 200-day moving average. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains just above 50, suggesting weak buying momentum.
Key Catalysts: Adoption and the HBAR ETF Decision
Beyond the charts, fundamental factors are playing a crucial role. In terms of adoption, the state of Wyoming has selected Hedera to develop its official stablecoin, the Frontier Stable Token (FRNT). This is a major milestone for the network’s utility. In parallel, the market eagerly awaits the SEC’s decision on a spot HBAR ETF proposal filed by Canary Capital. The deadline for a response is October 29, 2025, an event that could open the door to a larger flow of institutional capital.
The impact of these events could be decisive for the token’s future. An ETF approval could validate HBAR in the eyes of large companies and investors, significantly increasing demand. Conversely, a rejection, combined with the confirmation of bearish technical signals, could generate significant selling pressure. The market is at a delicate equilibrium, where strategic buying at support levels contends with technical indicators that warn of potential downturns.
The current situation underscores a tension between long-term adoption potential and short-term technical uncertainty. Institutional capital flows have proven capable of sustaining key price levels, but the sustainability of the HBAR price recovery will largely depend on the regulatory verdict. The SEC’s decision on the upcoming October 29 is shaping up to be the catalyst that will define the asset’s direction in the coming months.
