Hedera (HBAR) saw a surge in ETF inflows that pushed weekly net receipts to approximately $1.46M, lifting short-term bullish momentum. Traders and institutional allocators were buoyed by that flow, but HBAR faced a tight technical confluence that needed to be cleared before the market could validate a 31% upside projection.
Hedera (HBAR) had formed a clear double bottom, a W-pattern, with a defined support floor at $0.102 and a neckline at $0.135. Technical projections tied the pattern’s confirmed breakout to a target near $0.176, roughly a 31% gain measured from the $0.135 neckline. Price action hovered below that neckline, trading near $0.123 as of January 14, 2026, after a nearly 2% drop in 24 hours and about a 10% slide over the prior week.
The dominant technical obstacle was the 50‑day exponential moving average at $0.127. Analysts described the $0.127–$0.135 band as a “gauntlet”: clearing the EMA alone would be insufficient unless followed by a decisive breach of the neckline that converted the range into support.
“ETF demand represents slower, steadier capital that tends to absorb supply during consolidation phases rather than chase breakouts,” analysts wrote in market-flow commentary, highlighting why sustained inflows mattered for any breakout attempt.
Flows, forecasts and what they imply for product and compliance
ETF inflows accelerated into mid‑January, with a notable $817,770 inflow on January 14 — the third consecutive day of positive net flows — marking the strongest weekly total for Hedera so far in 2026. Market commentary framed those receipts as strategic accumulation by institutional players rather than speculative retail buying, an important distinction for custody, AML/KYC, and portfolio-liability planning.
These estimates covered a wide spectrum of risk profiles; several of the higher-end targets in the coverage were explicitly speculative and dependent on continued institutional demand plus broad market tailwinds. For product and compliance teams, steady ETF inflows raised questions about custody capacity, settlement windows and the operational latency required to process larger institutional orders without slippage.
Investors are now turning their attention to whether HBAR can convert the $0.127–$0.135 confluence into support. A successful crossover, sustained by continued ETF inflows, would increase the probability of the projected move toward $0.176; failure to do so would likely keep HBAR range‑bound and keep compliance and custody teams prioritizing operational readiness. Market participants will be watching price action and inflow cadence into February 2026 for clearer evidence of which path will prevail.
