A massive HYPE token unlock scheduled for November 2025 will test the resilience of the Hyperliquid ecosystem, with direct implications for investors, large holders and the liquidity of the on-chain derivatives market. A first critical date is November 29, 2025, when an immediate tranche of approximately 8.9 million HYPE (2.66% of the circulating supply) could be released within a vesting schedule that may add up to 237.8 million tokens —about $370.98 million— starting from that period.
The event is more than a technical supply adjustment: it opens the door to profit-taking by investors after the recent rally. Markets have responded to concrete signals, including the withdrawal of $122 million in HYPE by a single wallet originally acquired at around $12 per token, and rumors of corrections of between 50% and 60% from current levels (approximate range $41–$46). At the same time, some large players are buying around the $36 support level, highlighting opposing views between profit-taking and accumulation.
Hyperliquid’s design includes mechanisms to mitigate supply pressure. Cited data indicate that the protocol allocates 97% of its revenues —which average $65.5 million monthly— to HYPE market buybacks, a flow that has reduced the circulating supply by 8.7% since July 2025. Additionally, the platform’s ~70% share of on-chain perpetuals volume and a reported $10.6 billion in TVL in August 2025 strengthen liquidity and revenue backing for buybacks.
Implications for HYPE ecosistem
The combination of a larger unlock, potential sales by large holders and current market momentum suggests a window of heightened short-term volatility. However, the intensity of the buyback program and the dominant share in on-chain derivatives could cushion prolonged declines if demand holds.
Volatility risk remains front and center. “A drop of 50% to 60% could occur,” some analysts said, reflecting fear of concentrated selling after unlocks and uncertainty around investor behavior as tranches begin to vest.
The November test will be an operational inflection point: if buybacks and liquidity sustain demand, HYPE could restore the trend; otherwise, the market may face sharp adjustments. The next milestone to watch is November 29, 2025, when the first significant tranches of the unlock are expected.
