Metaplanet raised its revenue and profit targets for 2026 while disclosing a large non‑cash Bitcoin impairment of roughly ¥104.6 billion (about $679–680M) for fiscal 2025. The move highlights the company’s concentrated treasury exposure to Bitcoin and the operational impact of its “FX + treasury” strategy.
For fiscal 2025 Metaplanet recorded a substantial non‑cash Bitcoin impairment driven by December 2025 price swings. The company reported the impairment as approximately ¥104.6 billion, equivalent to about $679–680M, and said the adjustment will produce an ordinary and net loss for the year while not directly draining operating cash flow.
Despite the valuation hit, Metaplanet revised its 2025 operational guidance upward: revenue was raised to ¥8.905 billion (≈ $57.8M) and operating income to ¥6.287 billion (≈ $40.8M). The firm also reported that its Bitcoin holdings had expanded to 35.102 BTC and that its treasury and options activity generated material BTC yield and real cash flows during 2025.
Market reaction has been mixed. The stock fell following the impairment disclosure—reports referenced declines of around 7% and, in some periods, as much as 17%—but it also posted an 8% intraday gain on 2026-01-06 amid a broader crypto rebound and buyback announcements. Analysts’ 12‑month targets showed a range of views, with a consensus cited near ¥1,927.50.
Outlook, risks and market implications
Metaplanet projected a materially stronger 2026: management expects revenue of ¥16 billion (≈ $104M) and operating income of ¥11.4 billion (≈ $74M). The company indicated that roughly 97.5% of projected 2026 revenue will come from its Bitcoin Income Generation business, making the plan highly sensitive to BTC price moves.
Price assumptions factored into the plan include an April 2026 average Bitcoin estimate near $119,790.68, with a modeled range from about $100,110.58 to $139,470.79. If Bitcoin tracks the upper end of that band, Metaplanet’s treasury strategy would amplify earnings; conversely, a sustained price drop would likely produce further impairments and reduce reported earnings even if operational cash flows remain intact.
For product teams and compliance officers the case underscores the need to distinguish reported NAV volatility from liquidity and to document hedging, disclosure and valuation policies clearly. The company’s reliance on options strategies to monetize Bitcoin introduces operational complexity that will draw scrutiny from investors and regulators focused on custody, valuation and risk management.
Investors and analysts will watch Metaplanet’s fiscal 2025 results, which the company will report on 2026-02-10; that release will provide the first consolidated test of whether the upgraded operational forecasts and the “FX + treasury” approach can withstand further market swings and sustain confidence in the 2026 targets.
