Monero (XMR) continues to fall after experiencing losses of up to 65% over the past month. Its peak reached $799, and according to market data, it may fall to $150 by the end of February.
Monero price action formed a sharp pennant pole during the initial sell-off, with the decline extending from roughly $799 down to near $276. This move was followed by a consolidation phase around the $320–$330 zone as of February 10. That structure fits the profile of a bearish pennant continuation pattern, which typically signals further downside if the lower boundary fails.
Immediate technical support was identified near $314, aligning both with recent lows and the lower edge of the pennant formation. A break below this level would likely invalidate the consolidation and open the door to accelerated selling pressure, reinforcing the broader bearish setup observed in early February.
From a market structure perspective, momentum remained fragile. The consolidation did little to rebuild bullish conviction, instead reflecting a pause driven more by reduced activity than by meaningful buying interest. As a result, the risk of continuation to the downside remained elevated.
Flows, derivatives, and Monero liquidity
Derivatives data pointed to a sharp contraction in speculative participation. Open interest fell steeply from around $279 million in mid-January to roughly $110–$118 million by February 10, signaling a significant withdrawal of leveraged traders and thinner order books. This reduction in depth increased the market’s vulnerability to abrupt price swings.
Exchange flow data reinforced the defensive tone. Net inflows of approximately $768,000 during the week ending February 9, were interpreted as distribution rather than accumulation, suggesting that supply was returning to exchanges instead of being absorbed by long-term holders.
With liquidity reduced, price sensitivity increased materially. Relatively modest sell orders were capable of producing outsized moves, amplifying downside volatility. Analysts therefore advised caution around short-lived rebounds, as available data suggested that rallies were being used primarily as exit opportunities rather than as points for renewed exposure.
Looking ahead, downside risk levels were clearly mapped. Beyond immediate support at $314, the primary downside target highlighted was $150, a key demand zone aligned with Fibonacci retracement levels. Additional risk areas were identified at $114 and $88 if selling pressure intensifies.
For sentiment to shift decisively, Monero would need sustained daily closes above $350 and, more importantly, above $532. Until those thresholds are reclaimed, the path of least resistance for XMR remains to the downside.
