Pi Coin faces a technical risk that could result in a 34% drop if it loses key support levels, with the main barometer being a daily close below the $0.20–$0.22 range. This warning combines concrete chartist signals with demand weakness and a possible supply wave scheduled for July 2025, and is relevant for investors, product teams and compliance.
A recent technical analysis identifies a “head-and-shoulders” formation in Pi Coin whose neckline is near $0.21; a daily close below that line would increase the probability of the bearish projection of 34%, with a target near $0.19. The “head-and-shoulders” figure is a reversal pattern that suggests trend reversal when the price breaks its neckline.
There is a hidden bearish divergence on the RSI that confirms a loss of momentum in the 30-day trend and places the immediate psychological barrier at $0.23 whose failure anticipates the test of the cited support.
The technical vulnerability is amplified by market and structural conditions. Retail demand shows weakness and capital flow has reduced, with sentiment indicators at four-month lows and a Fear and Greed index at 34. Part of the market operates under speculative “IOU” schemes, where value allocation depends on promises rather than real liquidity.
Immediate technical risk for Pi Coin
Despite the launch of Open Mainnet on February 20, 2025, the coin is still not widely listed on regulated exchanges, which limits accessibility, market depth and institutional custody capabilities.
An additional and clearly quantifiable risk is the unlock schedule: in July 2025 the release of approximately 318 million Pi tokens is expected, an increase in supply that could exert significant selling pressure and saturate emerging demand.
The lack of widespread listings is partly a consequence of regulatory caution and the ecosystem’s own development pace; without liquidity and consolidated use cases, regulated exchanges tend to delay integrations due to KYC/AML and custody requirements.
Legitimacy and operational trust are affected by the “mining” model based on a mobile app, which has raised doubts about the nature and real value of the crypto work involved; those doubts affect risk perception and can increase compliance costs for third parties that consider offering listing or custody services.
Pi Coin combines a clear technical threshold with fundamental risks and an upcoming supply event that makes any slowdown capable of triggering the projected 34% drop.
