Stellar’s tokenized real-world asset (RWA) ecosystem has expanded rapidly, pushing the network’s RWA value to roughly $986 million after rising from $890 million on December 31. That surge has renewed debate over whether XLM’s price can shift into a sustained bullish phase.
Data from recent market reports show Stellar’s RWA market cap rose 172% by the close of 2025, while TVL in RWA projects on the network climbed 95% to $211 million. The jump from $890 million at the end of 2025 to about $986 million in early January places the network within reach of a $1 billion RWA valuation. The question matters because increasing RWA activity drives transaction demand and settlement volume on Stellar, creating a direct channel for on-chain utility to influence XLM’s price dynamics.
Those figures underpin the argument that RWA growth is not merely headline noise but a structural demand driver: tokenized assets increase transaction frequency, smart-contract use and settlement flows that use XLM as a native settlement asset, according to the reporting cited in the coverage.
Technical setup, risk levels and catalysts
Technically, the reporting notes a mixed but constructive picture. XLM had dropped about 34% over the prior three months, yet charts formed what analysts described as an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern — a formation commonly interpreted as a potential market bottom. Supporting indicators included positive Chaikin Money Flow readings and a Money Flow Index holding above 36, which the coverage linked to ongoing dip-buying.
Beyond technicals, the report flagged a protocol upgrade — Protocol 25 (“X‑Ray”) with integrated zero-knowledge privacy features — scheduled for January 2026 as a potential institutional adoption catalyst. That upgrade, together with accelerating RWA tokenization, was described as a structural tailwind for network utility and XLM demand.
Investors are now watching two linked events as the clearest tests of the bullish thesis: whether Stellar’s RWA value crosses the $1 billion mark and whether XLM can deliver the daily and weekly closes above the $0.254–$0.26 band.
Those outcomes would strengthen the case that real-world asset tokenization is translating into measurable on-chain demand for XLM; failure to hold support levels would leave the bullish pattern vulnerable and signal that the rally in RWA value has yet to shift market sentiment decisively.
