The technology company Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, faces a complex landscape to consolidate its ambitious financial strategy moving forward. Currently, the firm led by Michael Saylor holds a total of 672,497 BTC, which represents a valuation close to 59 billion dollars. Despite unrealized gains of 17%, analysts warn that financing costs could pressure its capital structure soon.
On the other hand, the organization has had to establish a cash reserve of 1.44 billion dollars recently. This fund aims to guarantee the payment of dividends and debt for the next twelve months against any market eventualities. Likewise, dependence on the price of the digital currency is absolute, which is why any significant correction would directly affect its accounting balance and investor confidence.
In this sense, the transition to fair value accounting has increased the volatility of its quarterly earnings reports lately. Changes in the Bitcoin price flow directly through results, thus reported earnings reflect extreme fluctuations without the need to sell any holdings. Nevertheless, the original software business has lost strategic relevance, turning the company into a leveraged investment vehicle for the institutional sector and global funds.
Corporate leverage sustainability depends on the stability of the global market
In addition, the emergence of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has introduced fierce competition to capture institutional capital this year. Investors now have lower cost options available, so Strategy must prove that its model remains superior to others. Therefore, the potential exclusion from MSCI global indices represents a latent risk of massive passive capital outflows that could significantly reduce the liquidity of its shares.
On the other hand, the viability of the Bitcoin treasury model depends on the market remaining in a constructive phase. If the appetite for leveraged exposure weakens significantly, the execution of new share issuances would become extremely difficult and value-destructive. Furthermore, the rise in global interest rates complicates things, especially for companies that rely heavily on convertible debt instruments and high-yield preferred stocks.
What impact would a 30% correction have on Strategy’s financial balance?
However, experts suggest that a sharp drop in the asset would not threaten the immediate survival of the technology company. A major correction could break the business mechanics, as the premium over the net asset value would be erased. Therefore, the company would face very high cash obligations, in this way it would be forced to seek expensive alternatives to maintain its daily operation.
Finally, the firm’s success in 2026 will depend on key metrics such as leverage ratios and acquisition costs. The optimistic scenario projects a recovery towards new highs, which would allow the company to continue its aggressive annual buying cycle. In contrast, monitoring price support will be absolutely fundamental, which is why investors must closely track operating cash flow and financial debt obligations.
