On October 28, 2025, Trump Media & Technology Group announced “Truth Predict,” a prediction-betting feature inside Truth Social operated by Crypto.com’s derivatives unit. The rollout begins with a small test before a planned nationwide launch in the United States. The model blends crypto tokens with real-money compliance standards, introducing risks for users, investors, and compliance teams.
TMTG describes Truth Predict as a “prediction contracts” page where users wager on live events such as elections and market indicators. The company asserts the structure complies with federal law, signaling a push to frame prediction markets within existing regulatory boundaries.
Crypto.com’s derivatives branch will operate the betting infrastructure, with an initial limited trial to validate systems and oversight before a broader U.S. release. The phased approach suggests a focus on operational safeguards and regulatory posture.
Markets reacted immediately: DJT shares rose 11.73% to $17.07 premarket, while CRO climbed about 10% in one hour, reflecting investor expectations around user engagement and monetization potential.
Financial ties, ETF plans, and risk profile
On September 5, 2025, TMTG acquired roughly 684.4 million CRO tokens for about $105 million—around 2% of circulating supply. On the same day, Crypto.com purchased $50 million of TMTG shares. This swap equips TMTG with a CRO reserve to pay fees or rewards within its network and cements a reciprocal commercial alignment.
TMTG has filed with the SEC to list three exchange traded funds, including a Bitcoin-and-Ethereum fund (filed June 16, 2025) and a “Crypto Blue Chip” fund (filed July 8, 2025) targeting 70% Bitcoin and 15% Ethereum. The firm also says it plans to park $2.5 billion in Bitcoin on its balance sheet, signaling a strategic tilt toward digital asset exposure.
Money facts underscore execution risk: In 2024 the company lost $401 million on $3.6 million in revenue. In the second quarter alone, losses were $16.4 million on $837,000 in revenue. Truth Social reported 6.3 million monthly active users in January 2025, after 1 million downloads in its first two weeks in February 2022, framing the audience base for the new product.
Next steps will be pivotal: TMTG will run the Truth Predict test and await SEC decisions on its ETF filings; these outcomes will shape user uptake, trading accessibility, and the intensity of regulatory oversight.
